集运日报：SCFIS持续下跌中东局势再度紧张现货运价持续低迷盘面处于筑底过程不建议继续加仓设置好止损-20250910

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously falling, the Middle - East situation is tense again, and spot freight rates are persistently low. The market is in the bottom - building process. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - Shipping Indexes: On September 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1566.46 points, down 11.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 980.48 points, down 3.3%. On September 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1023.16 points, down 6.83%; the NCFI for the European route was 855.93 points, down 7.92%; for the US - West route, it was 1338.34 points, down 4.19%. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index on September 5 was 1444.44 points, down 0.62 points; the SCFI for the European route was 1315 USD/TEU, down 11.21%; for the US - West route, it was 2189 USD/FEU, up 13.83%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1149.14 points, down 0.6%; for the European route, it was 1638.77 points, down 2.8%; for the US - West route, it was 774.40 points, unchanged [3]. - Economic Data: The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1. The eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7. In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points. The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [3][4]. - Contract Data: On September 9, the main contract 2510 closed at 1268.7, down 0.97%, with a trading volume of 22,400 lots and an open interest of 47,200 lots, a decrease of 290 lots from the previous day [5]. Strategies - Short - term Strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and consider increasing positions around 1200; add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage Strategy: In the context of international situation instability, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term Strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Other Information - Tariff and Trade: Sino - US tariffs continue to be postponed, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - Geopolitical Situation: On September 9, the Israeli military called on residents of Gaza City to evacuate as it planned a large - scale ground offensive. Hamas said the US cease - fire proposal was not a real agreement [5][6].