工业硅期货周报-20250910

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - During the week from September 1st to 5th, 2025, the price of industrial silicon in the futures market fluctuated upward, while the spot market remained stable. The main contract of industrial silicon futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with relatively sharp fluctuations and a significant increase in trading volume, indicating intense competition between long and short positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Price: The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated during the week, showing a pattern of two down - days and three up - days. By the end of the week, the main contract (si2511) rose 450 points, closing at 8,820 points, with a maximum of 8,920 points and a minimum of 8,270 points. The trading volume was 1,916,401 lots, which was higher than the average level in the past period, in line with the characteristics of an adjustment and correction market [3]. - Variety Market: Among the industrial silicon futures contracts, the price of the industrial silicon (si2608) contract was the highest and remained relatively stable, while the price of the industrial silicon (si2509) contract was the lowest [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Market Conditions: The spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly this week. As of September 5th, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained at 11,800 yuan/ton, the price of East China non - oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained at 11,500 yuan/ton, the price of East China 421 silicon remained at 12,200 yuan/ton, the price of East China organic silicon - used 421 silicon remained at 12,800 yuan/ton, the price of 99 silicon (Xinjiang) remained at 10,950 yuan/ton, and the price difference between 421 and 553 was 400 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis Data: The spot price in East China remained stable during the week, while the futures price rose slightly. The basis was positive and narrowed, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton during the week [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Latest News: On the supply side, the production of industrial silicon is expected to decline in September. Although the current silicon price has fallen below the lowest cost line in the southwestern region during the wet season, some enterprises have locked in the selling price through selling hedging, so there is no obvious production cut for the time being. However, after the delivery of hedging orders, silicon factories will cut production due to the inability to accept long - term low prices. In terms of regions, although there is a resumption of production in Xinjiang, the overall resumption rhythm and capacity release are limited; Yunnan and Sichuan are struggling near the cost line, and production enthusiasm is affected [10]. - Technical Analysis: Currently, the cumulative main buying of industrial silicon is greater than the main selling, and the main buying has been strong for two consecutive days, indicating strong buyer sentiment. However, from a longer - term and overall supply - demand perspective, industrial silicon still faces significant upward pressure. Whether this rebound can continue depends on changes in the fundamentals and the subsequent sustainability of funds [11]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Overall, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable this week without significant fluctuations. However, market feedback shows that the spot trading activity is not high, and traders and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, mainly for rigid demand, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [13][14].