海外债券周报：美债避险驱动全球债市分化-20250910

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant decline in US Treasury yields, driven by rising global risk aversion and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to weakening economic data [7][9][27] - European long-term government bond yields have reached near-decade highs, particularly in the UK, France, and Germany, influenced by fiscal expansion and political uncertainties, leading to a sell-off in European bonds [8][9][10] - The report suggests a shift in global capital flows, indicating increased risk aversion and a preference for high-quality, liquid bonds amid diverging monetary policies across major economies [8][9][10] Group 2 - The US Treasury yield curve has shifted downward, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.08% and the 30-year yield decreasing by 16.8 basis points to 4.76%, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets [9][10][11] - In contrast, UK 30-year government bond yields have surged to their highest levels since 1998, with significant increases in yields for French and German bonds as well, indicating a divergence in bond market performance [9][10][11] - The report notes that Asian government bonds have remained stable, with limited yield fluctuations, highlighting a risk diversion effect in the market [9][10][11] Group 3 - The issuance of credit bonds has primarily involved high-rated entities, focusing on sectors such as infrastructure, real estate, and transportation, with maturities mainly between 1-3 years [17][19] - The offshore RMB bond market has shown a slight widening of the yield spread between dim sum bonds and domestic bonds, indicating a stable long-term outlook for offshore RMB liquidity [15][16][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified credit exposure, particularly in high-rated corporate bonds and sovereign debt, while being cautious of over-concentration in any single sector or credit rating [33][34]