FICC日报：关注中国8月通胀数据和美国8月PPI数据-20250910

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Global inflation showed initial signs of rising in August. China's economic data in July still had resilience, but domestic monthly economic data faced pressure. The government emphasized measures to stabilize the real - estate market, expand consumption, and increase investment. China's August exports and imports had different trends, and September exports might improve due to a low base. The A - share market on September 9 was in an adjustment state. In the US, the manufacturing index contracted, and employment data was worse than expected. The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and there are concerns about its credibility crisis. In Japan, policy uncertainty increased, leading to a sell - off of long - term government bonds. For commodities, different sectors have different outlooks, and it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals at low prices [2][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, global inflation began to rise. China's July exports increased year - on - year, supported by a low base and the "rush - to - export" effect. Financial data showed excessive money supply but weak financing and loan data. Investment data faced pressure. In August, China's exports grew by 4.4% year - on - year, a 2.8 - percentage - point decrease from July, mainly affected by a high base and tariffs. Exports to the US weakened, while those to emerging economies remained strong. Imports grew by 1.3% year - on - year, a 2.8 - percentage - point slowdown, dragged down by commodity imports. On September 9, the A - share market adjusted, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 3% in the afternoon. In the US, the August ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, and employment data was worse than expected [2]. Fed Policy - Powell's speech at the global central bank meeting on August 22 turned dovish, indicating a possible policy adjustment. The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle as August's employment data was disappointing. There is a growing credibility crisis at the Fed, with criticism from Trump and the US Treasury Secretary. Trump has announced potential candidates for the next Fed chair, and the nomination of Milan is to be voted on [3]. Commodity Analysis - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas inflation expectations can focus on precious metals and agricultural products. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector persists. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. In the chemical sector, there is "anti - involution" space for some products. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental support. Precious metals are a good long - term investment opportunity as the Fed is about to restart the interest - rate cut cycle [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals at low prices [5]. Key News - On September 9, the A - share market adjusted, with the ChiNext Index falling. Gold, real - estate, and bank stocks performed well, while semiconductor and innovation - drug stocks declined. An explosion in Doha, Qatar, led to a short - term rise in international oil prices. The US 2025 non - farm employment benchmark change was worse than expected. The Senate will vote on Milan's nomination as a Fed governor, and the FOMC is expected to cut interest rates in September [7].