光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250910

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea futures prices fluctuated weakly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,683 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.17%. The spot market continued to weaken, and the supply level fluctuated narrowly. The demand side remained cautious, and the average sales-to-production ratio was only 25%. The Indian tender results are still being announced, and if the procurement volume and China's supply exceed expectations, the futures price may be bullish in the short term; otherwise, it will be under pressure [1]. - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated weakly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,278 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.62%. The spot market quotation was stable, and the production level declined slightly. The demand side followed up as needed, and the market lacked new themes and drivers. It is expected that the short-term futures price will be bearish [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated strongly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,192 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.34%. The spot market quotation increased slightly, and the demand side improved. However, the marginal change in supply and demand was limited, and the short-term futures price was bearish [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On September 9, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 8,843, an increase of 76 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 75 [4]. - On September 9, the daily output of the urea industry was 183,200 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous working day and a decrease of 800 tons from the same period last year. The industry operating rate was 78.31%, a decrease of 4.23 percentage points from 82.54% in the same period last year [4]. - On September 9, the spot prices of small-grain urea in various regions of China were as follows: Shandong 1,680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Henan 1,690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hebei 1,710 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui 1,690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Jiangsu 1,680 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Shanxi 1,580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On September 9, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 7,759, a decrease of 440 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 3,157. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,093, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - On September 9, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were unchanged from the previous day [6]. - On September 9, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.76%, compared with 88.71% on the previous working day [7]. - On September 9, the average price of the float glass market was 1,163 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output of the industry was 160,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes 12 charts, showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass, and the futures price spreads between urea and methanol, and glass and soda ash [9][11][13]