光大期货软商品日报-20250910

Group 1: Research Views - Cotton: On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.27% to 66.39 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.68% to 13,835 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 2,364 lots to 507,700 lots. The cotton market price in Xinjiang was about 15,300 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day, and the national average cotton market price was 15,401 yuan per ton, down 27 yuan. The international market focused on the macro - level, with a nearly 100% probability of a September interest rate cut and over 10% probability of a 50BP cut. The weak - oscillating U.S. dollar index supported U.S. cotton prices. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices declined slightly due to new cotton listings, export pressure on clothing, and market sentiment adjustment. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term with limited downside space [2]. - Sugar: Brazil exported 769,000 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of September, with a daily average of 153,800 tons. In September 2024, Brazil's sugar export volume was 3.8795 million tons, with a daily average of 184,700 tons. Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,830 - 5,940 yuan per ton, and Yunnan groups quoted 5,720 - 5,770 yuan per ton, with some prices up 10 yuan. Processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were 5,950 - 6,080 yuan per ton, with some down 20 yuan. Raw sugar rebounded from a two - month low. The domestic spot market has sufficient short - term supply, and the futures prices lack upward drivers. It is expected to remain weak [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 45 yuan with no change, the main contract basis was 1,566 yuan, up 23 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,300 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan, and the national average was 15,401 yuan per ton, down 27 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 18 yuan, up 2 yuan, the main contract basis was 417 yuan, up 9 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 5,880 yuan per ton with no change, and the Liuzhou price was 5,935 yuan per ton with no change [3]. Group 3: Market Information - Cotton: On September 9, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 5,459, down 112 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0. The cotton market prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,300 yuan/ton, Henan 15,350 yuan/ton, Shandong 15,500 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 15,400 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, up 0.1, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.8, down 0.1, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.9, up 0.2, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.4 with no change [4]. - Sugar: On September 9, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,880 yuan/ton with no change, and the Liuzhou price was 5,935 yuan/ton with no change. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 11,977, down 125 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6 [4][5]. Group 4: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry [19]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]. Group 5: Company Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [24]