新能源及有色金属日报：流通货源相对充足，铅价难有靓丽表现-20250910

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage: Suspended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market has shown a pattern of weak supply and demand, and this pattern may not change significantly in September. Against the backdrop of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the lead price may maintain a somewhat stronger oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between RMB 16,300/ton and RMB 17,200/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On September 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.36/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by RMB 25/ton to RMB 16,775/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -RMB 35.00/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by RMB 25/ton to RMB 16,775/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by RMB 50/ton to RMB 16,800/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by RMB 25/ton to RMB 16,800/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -RMB 25/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at RMB 10,050/ton, RMB 10,100/ton, and RMB 10,400/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On September 9, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at RMB 16,920/ton and closed at RMB 16,930/ton, up RMB 35/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,476 lots, a decrease of 10,182 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,701 lots, an increase of 817 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between RMB 16,885/ton and RMB 16,940/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at RMB 16,895/ton and closed at RMB 16,820/ton, a 0.56% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On September 9, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from the same period last week. As of September 9, the LME lead inventory was 239,325 tons, a decrease of 5,075 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Conditions and Transactions - The SMM 1 lead price increased by RMB 25/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders quoted a premium of RMB 0 - 20/ton over the SMM 1 lead average price, or a discount of RMB 130 - 110/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In the Hunan region, branded lead smelters quoted a discount of RMB 50/ton to the SMM 1 lead price, and traders quoted a discount of RMB 200 - 180/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. Some non-delivery brands were negotiated down to a discount of RMB 80/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. In the Anhui and Jiangxi regions, holders quoted a discount of RMB 90/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. The lead futures continued a slight upward trend, but the market had relatively sufficient supply, downstream buyers were generally cautious and observing, and overall market transactions were light [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral view. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between RMB 16,300/ton and RMB 17,200/ton [3] - Arbitrage: Suspend operations [3]