长江期货市场交易指引-20250910

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures - bullish in the medium to long term, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds - hold and observe [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal - range trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - buy on dips [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - hold and observe or buy on dips for short - term trading; Aluminum - recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - recommend to observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][9][10][13][14] - Energy Chemicals: PVC - volatile; Caustic soda - volatile; Soda ash - short 01 and long 05 arbitrage; Styrene - volatile; Rubber - bullish volatile; Urea - volatile; Methanol - volatile; Polyolefins - wide - range volatile [1][19][20][24][27][28][30] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - volatile; PTA - volatile; Apples - bullish volatile; Jujubes - bearish volatile [1][34][36][38] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range volatile; Soybean meal - range volatile; Oils - bullish volatile [1][39][40][41][45][51] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products across multiple industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic environment, and policy expectations. For most products, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with some showing potential for long - term improvement based on factors like seasonal demand, trade policies, and production capacity changes [1][5][7][9][19][34][39] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Index Futures: A - share market was volatile on Tuesday. Short - term market fluctuations are intensifying. It is recommended to focus on high - growth overseas - oriented sectors, AI - related opportunities, and non - banking sectors. The technology theme may remain active, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market has been weak recently. Market sentiment is fragile, and it is recommended to hold and observe in the short term [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal and Coke: Steel mills' daily hot - metal production decreased this week. After the parade, production is expected to recover. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand season is approaching, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Coking coal is recommended to be observed in the range of [1030 - 1230] [7] - Rebar: Futures prices fluctuated on Tuesday. The iron ore price rose, but the impact is on the far - term. Fundamental supply and demand weakened, but it is the traditional demand season in September. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the RB2601 contract should focus on the [3000 - 3100] support level [7] - Glass: Supply increased slightly last week, and inventory was stable overall. Demand improved, and the market sentiment warmed up. It is recommended to take partial profit on the 01 long position and buy on dips around the 1130 - 1140 support level [8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The US employment data declined, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased, but concerns about the US economy limited the upside of copper prices. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the consumption season is approaching. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level, with a short - term operating range of 79000 - 80500 yuan/ton [9][10] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite in Guinea increased, and the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum was stable. Demand is entering the peak season, and it is recommended to buy on dips and consider the long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [10] - Nickel: The demonstration in Indonesia and the Fed rate - cut expectation affected nickel prices. The supply of nickel ore is expected to increase, but the price has support. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation in the long term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13][14] - Tin: Domestic refined tin production decreased in August. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand for semiconductors is expected to recover. Tin prices are expected to be volatile, with the Shanghai tin 10 - contract operating in the range of 26 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [15][16] - Gold and Silver: The US non - farm payrolls in August were lower than expected, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Gold and silver prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback, with the Shanghai gold 10 - contract operating in the range of 790 - 835 and the Shanghai silver 10 - contract in the range of 9100 - 10000 [16][18] Energy Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, supply is high, and demand is weak. Exports may face challenges. The market is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on the 4700 - 5000 range [19][20] - Caustic Soda: Affected by factors such as inventory and demand, the market is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on the 2530 - 2680 range [20][21] - Styrene: Due to factors like cost and demand, the market is expected to be volatile, and it should focus on the 6900 - 7200 range [22][24] - Rubber: The cost provides support, but the high - price raw materials face resistance from downstream. The market is expected to be bullish volatile, and it should focus on the 15600 support level [24][25] - Urea: Supply decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventory increased. It is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on the 1650 - 1700 support level [27][28] - Methanol: Supply was stable, cost was weak, and demand was mixed. The market is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on the 2350 - 2450 range [28] - Polyolefins: The "Golden September and Silver October" demand season is approaching, and downstream demand is improving. PE supply pressure is relieved, while PP supply is high. LL is expected to be range - volatile in the 7200 - 7500 range, and PP is expected to be bearish volatile in the 6900 - 7200 range [30] - Soda Ash: The spot market is weak, and supply is abundant. It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Global cotton supply and demand are improving, but new cotton production is expected to increase. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - PTA: Crude oil prices fell, and PTA supply increased. The market is expected to be volatile, and it should focus on the 4600 - 4950 range [35][36] - Apples: Early - maturing apples are priced higher than last year, and the market is expected to be bullish volatile [36] - Jujubes: Consumption is weak, and the market is expected to be bearish volatile [38] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Supply increased in September, and demand growth was slow. The price is under pressure, but policies and holiday demand may provide support. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and add short positions on rallies, and consider the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [39] - Eggs: Short - term demand was boosted, and supply pressure was relieved. However, cold - storage eggs may affect the price. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts, and the market is expected to be range - volatile [40] - Corn: The new crop is about to be listed, and the old - crop inventory is relatively tight. The 11 contract should not be overly bearish. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41][43] - Soybean Meal: The US soybean price has support, and domestic supply is abundant in the short term. The price is expected to be volatile, and the M2601 contract should focus on the 3030 support level [45][46] - Oils: Short - term price increases are limited due to factors such as inventory and report expectations. In the long term, demand is expected to improve, and it is recommended to buy on dips and consider the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 contract positive arbitrage [51]