油料日报：豆一受降雨影响走弱，花生需求疲软下行-20250910

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [1][3][5] Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures market showed a slight decline, affected by rainfall in Hubei which may have a negative impact on soybean quality. New soybeans are expected to be on the market soon, and the market has low expectations for the opening price due to strong expectations of a bumper harvest and average demand. The peanut futures market oscillated downward. Although the effective supply of new peanuts is currently low, the demand side remains weak, with most oil mills not yet starting the purchase of new peanuts, and the overall opening rate of oil mills is low [1][2][3] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the soybean 2511 contract was 3968.00 yuan/ton, a change of -9.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of -0.23%. The basis of edible soybean spot was A11 + 252, a change of +9 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14% [1] Market Information - The price of the Northeast soybean market remained stable. Grain trading enterprises mainly sold the old grain in the state reserve, and the old grain from 2024 was almost exhausted. New soybeans are approaching the market, and it is expected that new grain may be on the market after the 20th in some areas. The market has low expectations for the opening price due to strong expectations of a bumper harvest and average demand. The prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained unchanged from the previous day [1] - Recent rainfall in Hubei has a negative impact on soybean quality, and some soybeans may have reduced quality due to waterlogging. The prices of some soybeans in Hubei are under downward pressure, and the market is waiting and watching. Hubei Cuishan beans have stable prices and good quality. About twenty days later, medium - yellow soybeans in Hunan will gradually be on the market. If the price is too low, farmers may hold back their sales, affecting the market supply rhythm [2] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7780.00 yuan/ton, a change of -96.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of -1.22%. The average spot price of peanuts was 8460.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.12%. The spot basis was PK10 + 620.00, a change of +196.00 from the previous day, an increase of +46.23% [3] Market Information - The average price of general - quality peanuts in the national peanut market was basically stable at 4.23 yuan/jin. Due to the impact of rainy weather on the listing progress, peanuts with low moisture content were favored, and their prices were relatively firm. The contract purchase price of general - quality peanuts in Shandong oil mills was 8300 - 8400 yuan/ton. The current opening rate of oil mills is low, and the demand for pressing is small. The contract purchase price of oil - grade peanuts in a Henan oil mill was about 7300 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of some Shandong oil mills was 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, with a small amount of arrivals [3] - The peanut futures market oscillated downward. The effective supply of new peanuts is currently small, and the available supply of new peanuts is significantly reduced compared with the same period in previous years. However, the demand side remains weak, with most oil mills not yet starting the purchase of new peanuts, and the overall opening rate of oil mills is low. The motivation for festival stocking is lower than expected, and the domestic trade sales volume is average. As the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach, the market is paying attention to the purchasing trends and motivation of large food factories and oil mills [3][4]