原油日报：以色列打击卡塔尔哈马斯，对油价影响有限-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term range - bound oscillation for oil prices and a medium - term short - position allocation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the conflict in the Middle East has resurfaced, after the roller - coaster market in June, the market has realized that the conflict will not affect energy infrastructure. The conflict has a short - term impact on sentiment but has limited impact on the crude oil fundamentals [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 37 cents, closing at $62.63 per barrel, with a gain of 0.59%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose 37 cents, closing at $66.39 per barrel, with a gain of 0.56%. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.08%, at 484 yuan per barrel [2] - Trump asked the EU to impose tariffs on countries importing Russian crude oil [3] - The EIA Short - Term Energy Outlook Report predicts that the WTI crude oil price in 2025 will be $64.16 per barrel (previously expected to be $63.58 per barrel), and in 2026 will be $47.77 per barrel (unchanged from the previous expectation). It predicts that the Brent crude oil price in 2025 will be $67.80 per barrel (previously expected to be $67.22 per barrel), and in 2026 will be $51.43 per barrel (unchanged from the previous expectation) [3] - Israel launched an attack on senior political leaders of Hamas in Doha, Qatar. Israel's crackdown on the organization has further escalated. Trump has approved the attack. Qatar condemned the attack, saying it blatantly violated international law [3] - The US Department of the Interior stated that the US has the ability to replace Russia in supplying natural gas to Europe [3] Investment Logic - Israel's attack on Hamas senior leaders in Qatar triggered a short - term rise in oil prices, but the impact on the crude oil fundamentals is limited [4] Strategy - Oil prices will oscillate in a short - term range and be short - positioned in the medium term [5] Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [5]