菜粕期货日报-20250910

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently at a game point between "high inventory, weak reality" and "production cut, strong expectation." In the short term, it is necessary to closely monitor the USDA report's tone on US soybeans, and the price of the rm2601 contract may continue to fluctuate. In the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the supply gap expectation in the fourth quarter can be realized, and be vigilant about the impact of market sentiment fluctuations and unexpected news on prices [13] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 8, 2025, the rm2601 contract of rapeseed meal futures opened higher and fluctuated and adjusted, rising 0.24% from the previous day to close at 2542 points. The full - day trading volume was 371,400 lots, and the open interest was 393,500 lots [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - All contracts of rapeseed meal futures had different price changes throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety was 491,406 lots, an increase of 1,810 lots from the previous trading day [4] 1.3 Related Quotes - The total trading volume of rapeseed meal options throughout the day was 77,516 lots, the total open interest was 140,720 lots, with an increase of 4,741 lots in open interest, and the total number of exercises on the day was 0 lots [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - On September 8, the benchmark price of rapeseed meal was 2,638.33 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed meal was 96.33 yuan/ton [8] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the newly registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal increased by 3,642 compared with the previous trading day, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 10,403 [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - China's imports of rapeseed and its products are highly dependent on Canada. From March to August 2025, China imposed anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed, resulting in a decrease in imports. The shortage of raw materials for coastal oil mills led to a sharp year - on - year decline in the production of rapeseed meal from Canadian rapeseed crushing, and there was also a significant decline in the import market, which supported the price of rapeseed meal. Rapeseed meal is mainly used in aquaculture feed production. As the temperature gradually drops in September, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture will gradually decline, but it is still in the peak season of aquaculture, with a certain rigid demand for rapeseed meal [11] 3.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line chart, the price of rapeseed meal futures showed a fluctuating trend on the day, and the price fluctuated between the 5 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average throughout the day. The high point position above and the 20 - day moving average suppressed the price. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through effectively [12] 4. Market Outlook - The rapeseed meal market is at a game point between "high inventory, weak reality" and "production cut, strong expectation." In the short term, closely monitor the USDA report's tone on US soybeans, and the price of the rm2601 contract may continue to fluctuate. In the medium term, pay attention to whether the supply gap expectation in the fourth quarter can be realized, and be vigilant about the impact of market sentiment fluctuations and unexpected news on prices [13]