光大期货有色商品日报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated weakly, and SHFE copper had a narrow - range fluctuation. US employment data led to a restart of the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts and increased concerns about a US recession, affecting the non - ferrous market sentiment. Although the peak season is approaching, high copper prices have made downstream buyers hesitant, resulting in weak procurement. LME copper inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1,739 tons to 279,140 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, and BC copper decreased by 502 tons to 4,418 tons [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Alumina's excess pattern is difficult to reverse, and the import increase adds pressure. Electrolytic aluminum starts a macro - micro resonance mode. With the Fed's possible rate cut in September, the start - up of downstream industries in some areas is restricted by environmental protection, and the inventory inflection point of aluminum ingots is postponed. The end of tax rebates for recycled aluminum restricts supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum in the short term [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.49% to $15,105 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.45% to 120,400 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 456 tons to 218,070 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 173 tons to 22,599 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, but supply increased. In the new - energy sector, demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but raw - material supply was relatively tight. With the marginal improvement of ferronickel and new - energy sectors, opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On September 9, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 79,840 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day, and the flat - water copper premium was 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 73,500 yuan/ton. LME copper registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, and the total inventory increased by 2,103 tons to 81,851 tons. COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,739 tons to 279,137 tons, and the domestic + bonded - area social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 21.4 million tons [3]. - Lead: On September 9, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 239,325 tons, and the SHFE warrants increased by 25 tons to 53,820 tons, with the weekly inventory increasing by 2,162 tons to 66,834 tons [3]. - Aluminum: On September 9, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 20,740 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai quotation was 20,730 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The price of Shandong alumina decreased by 30 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton. LME aluminum registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 74 tons to 64,459 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1,518 tons to 124,078 tons. The weekly social inventory of alumina increased by 2.1 million tons to 8.1 million tons [5]. - Nickel: On September 9, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,000 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan from the previous day. LME nickel registered + cancelled inventory increased by 456 tons to 218,070 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 173 tons to 22,599 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 547 tons to 26,986 tons. The weekly social inventory of nickel increased by 460 tons to 39,930 tons [5]. - Zinc: On September 9, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from the previous day. The SMM 0 spot price was 22,190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 51,025 tons. The weekly social inventory increased by 0.14 million tons to 13.99 million tons [6]. - Tin: On September 9, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 269,790 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The SMM spot price was 270,400 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 207 tons to 7,773 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 2,355 tons [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: The report provides copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premium charts from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of spot premiums for these metals [8][10][11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the price differences between near - term and far - term contracts [15][20][23]. - LME Inventory: The report presents LME inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical changes in LME inventories of these metals [24][26][28]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts display SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the historical changes in SHFE inventories [31][33][35]. - Social Inventory: The report includes social inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of social inventories [37][39][41]. - Smelting Profit: The report provides charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the historical trends of smelting profits in the non - ferrous metal industry [44][46][48].