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聚烯烃日报:需求旺季支撑,盘面窄幅波动-20250910
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-10 07:46

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L - P [3] Core View - The peak demand season has arrived, but it is still mainly for rigid - demand procurement, with the market fluctuating narrowly. Multiple PE units are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased, with supply pressure expected to ease slightly, while new PP production capacity is being released. Downstream demand is in the transition period between the "Golden September and Silver October" seasonal off - peak and peak seasons, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films show a slight upward trend. The upstream production inventory has increased slightly, while the inventory in the middle - stream has decreased. As the peak demand season arrives in mid - to late September, the downstream operating rate is expected to rise, and the short - term supply - demand margin may improve. Crude oil is weakly consolidating, and the profit of PDH - made PP is slightly in the red, with an increase in the maintenance volume of PDH units [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L (LLDPE) main contract closed at 7229 yuan/ton (- 22), and the PP main contract closed at 6949 yuan/ton (- 19). The LL North China spot price was 7180 yuan/ton (+ 30), the LL East China spot price was 7190 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the PP East China spot price was 6800 yuan/ton (+ 0). The LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 52), the LL East China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+ 42), and the PP East China basis was - 149 yuan/ton (+ 19) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 80.5% (+ 1.9%), and the PP operating rate was 79.9% (- 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit was 344.5 yuan/ton (- 41.0), the PP oil - based production profit was - 265.5 yuan/ton (- 41.0), and the PDH - made PP production profit was - 296.9 yuan/ton (- 21.8) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was - 238.9 yuan/ton (- 1.6), the PP import profit was - 523.0 yuan/ton (+ 54.2), and the PP export profit was 38.8 US dollars/ton (+ 3.9) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 20.2% (+ 2.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.5% (+ 0.9%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+ 1.0) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream production inventory increased slightly, and the inventory in the middle - stream decreased [2]