农产品日报：库存压力仍存，豆粕维持震荡-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector, the strategy is neutral [3][4] - For the corn sector, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - The current growth of US soybeans is good, with a high excellent - good rate, and future USDA adjustments to new - season US soybeans need attention. In China, soybean arrivals are high, supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is over one million tons. Policy news is frequent, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and new - season US soybean yields [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply of new - season grains is increasing, and the overall supply is loose. Deep - processing enterprises have low inventory and are ready to purchase new - season corn. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and various substitute grains. Attention should be paid to the listing of new - season corn [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3075 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2550 yuan/ton, a change of + 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.31%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] - US Market: As of September 7, the US soybean excellent - good rate was 64%, slightly higher than the expected 63% but lower than last week and the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 21%. As of September 4, the US soybean export inspection volume was 45.22 tons. The 2025/26 cumulative export inspection volume was 24.86 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.10% [2] 3.2 Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2214 yuan/ton, a change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 0.76%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2510 yuan/ton, a change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 0.67%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - US Market: As of September 7, the US corn excellent - good rate was 68%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, but the highest since 2018. The corn harvest rate was 4%, lower than the expected 5% [4] 3.3 Market Analysis (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - US: The growth of US soybeans is good, and the excellent - good rate is at a historical high. Future attention should be paid to USDA's adjustments to new - season US soybeans [3] - China: The supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is over one million tons. Policy news is frequent, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and their impact on import costs [3] 3.4 Market Analysis (Corn) - Supply: Traders have little old - season grain left. New - season grains are starting to be supplied to the market, and the overall supply is loose [5] - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises have low inventory and are ready to purchase new - season corn. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and various substitute grains [5] 3.5 Strategy - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: Neutral [4] - Corn: Cautiously bearish [6]