贵金属日报：宽松预期持续巩固，贵金属价格高位震荡-20250910

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Loose policy expectations continue to consolidate, and precious metal prices fluctuate at high levels. The potential significant downward revision of US employment data may expose stagflation risks, pushing up the safe-haven premium of gold. Silver also benefits from loose expectations and its industrial attributes, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and South Korea are deadlocked over the details of a $350 billion investment fund. South Korea cannot accept the same terms as Japan's $550 billion investment commitment. The US is expected to implement special measures to lower auto tariffs and reduce the burden of "reciprocal tariffs" on Japan by the 16th. The potential significant downward revision of US employment data in the 12 months up to March this year continues to consolidate expectations of loose monetary policy [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 9, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 827.50 yuan/gram and closed at 834.48 yuan/gram, a change of 1.41% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 832.60 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,867.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,846.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 526,614 lots, and the open interest was 223,011 lots. The night session closed at 9,760 yuan/kilogram, down 0.87% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.088%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.525%, down 0.4 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On September 9, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 314 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 257 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 470,523 lots, a change of 6.97% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,067,357 lots, a change of -24.09% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The position of the gold ETF was 979.68 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,069.6 tons, down 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On September 9, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -20.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -931.33 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 84.75, a change of 1.07% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 87.65, a change of 0.80% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 62,614 kilograms, a change of -2.06% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 384,540 kilograms, a change of -36.44% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 22,024 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 480 kilograms [7]