MPOB月报即将发布，棕榈油震荡加剧-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With the upcoming release of the MPOB and USDA reports, the market still anticipates inventory accumulation for palm oil. As the soybean harvest season approaches in the US, the soybean output is mostly determined. These two reports will further verify market expectations, and the market is awaiting guidance [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,486.00 yuan/ton, a +0.21% change; the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,408.00 yuan/ton, a -0.10% change; and the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,851.00 yuan/ton, a +0.16% change [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the palm oil spot price was 9,400.00 yuan/ton, a +0.43% change; in Tianjin, the first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8,510.00 yuan/ton, a -0.12% change; in Jiangsu, the fourth - grade rapeseed oil spot price was 10,050.00 yuan/ton, a +0.10% change [1] Market Data from Canada and China - Canada: As of July 31, wheat production was 35.94 million tons (vs. 33.41 million tons last year), and the ending inventory was 4.11 million tons (vs. 5.28 million tons last year). Rapeseed production was 19.24 million tons (vs. 19.46 million tons last year), and the ending inventory was 1.60 million tons (vs. 3.22 million tons last year) [2] - China: As of the 36th weekend of 2025, domestic soybean oil inventory was 1.44 million tons, a 1.60% increase; soybean meal inventory was 1.16 million tons, a 9.09% increase; imported rapeseed oil inventory was 0.71 million tons, a 4.01% decrease. The contract volume of imported rapeseed oil was 77,000 tons, a 44.65% decrease [2] International Commodity Prices - Canada: Rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price was $514/ton; (January shipment) was $522/ton [2] - Argentina: Soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price was $1,164/ton; (December shipment) was $1,168/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil: Canada (October shipment) was $1,070/ton; (December shipment) was $1,050/ton [2] - Soybeans: US Gulf (October shipment) C&F price was $466/ton, up $1/ton; US West (October shipment) was $445/ton, up $8/ton; Brazil (October shipment) was $489/ton, up $2/ton [2] - Imported soybean premiums: US Gulf (October shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, down 5 cents; US West Coast (October shipment) was 178 cents/bushel, up 13 cents; Brazil ports (October shipment) was 298 cents/bushel, down 2 cents [2]