化工日报：市场氛围转弱，胶价跟随回落-20250910

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral [7] - BR is rated neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with less rainfall in major production areas, raw material prices may rise, and cost - side support may weaken. Demand has an improvement expectation, and port inventory is expected to rise after downstream stocking ends [7] - For BR, supply is expected to decline, demand has an improvement expectation, and prices may have upward - repair momentum, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7] Market News and Data Futures - RU主力合约 closed at 15,940 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR主力合约 at 12,735 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton; BR主力合约 at 11,690 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan/ton [1] Spot - Yunnan - produced whole latex in Shanghai market was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,865 dollars/ton, down 25 dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,785 dollars/ton, down 40 dollars/ton; PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price was 11,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import Volume - In August 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 664,000 tons, up 7.8% from the same period in 2024 [2] Tire Industry - Tire enterprises' production capacity utilization has returned to normal, and some enterprises' orders and production volume have increased. The "Golden September and Silver October" has a positive impact on market sentiment, and market stocking is expected to increase [2] Export Volume of Cote d'Ivoire - In the first 8 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, up 14.4% from the same period in 2024. In August, exports were up 14.8% year - on - year and down 8.9% month - on - month [2] Global Natural Rubber Production and Consumption - In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, up 7.9% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons, down 0.3% from the previous month. In the first 7 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption decreased by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] Heavy - Truck Market - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 vehicles, down 1% month - on - month and up about 35% from the same period in 2024. From January to August, cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, up about 13% year - on - year [3] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, up 7% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spread - On September 9, 2025, RU basis was - 890 yuan/ton (- 30), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 940 yuan/ton (- 70), imported profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,594 yuan/ton (- 308.29), NR basis was 508 yuan/ton (+ 129); whole latex was 15,050 yuan/ton (- 350), mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (- 250), 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (- 100), STR20 was quoted at 1,865 dollars/ton (- 25), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (- 250), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,700 yuan/ton (- 50) [4][5] Raw Materials - Thai smoked sheet was 61.10 baht/kg (- 1.00), Thai latex was 56.00 baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 52.95 baht/kg (+ 0.25), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.05 baht/kg (- 0.25) [5] 开工率 - All - steel tire开工率 was 60.74% (- 4.15%), and semi - steel tire开工率 was 66.92% (- 4.05%) [6] 库存 - Natural rubber social inventory was 1,264,898 tons (- 5,911), Qingdao Port natural rubber inventory was 592,275 tons (- 10,020), RU futures inventory was 162,230 tons (- 16,410), and NR futures inventory was 46,569 tons (+ 907) [6] 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spread - On September 9, 2025, BR basis was 110 yuan/ton (+ 240), Sinopec's ex - factory price of butadiene was 9,350 yuan/ton (- 150), Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was quoted at 11,900 yuan/ton (- 200), Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 11,800 yuan/ton (- 150), Shandong private - owned BR was 11,650 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,471 yuan/ton (- 275) [6] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis BR was 76.16% (+ 0.31%) [6] 库存 - BR traders' inventory was 7,260 tons (+ 640), and BR enterprises' inventory was 24,650 tons (- 450) [6]