燃料油日报2025-09-10：8月低硫燃料油国产量小幅增加-20250910

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment has slightly recovered from the news of OPEC's production increase, and oil prices have stabilized. However, due to the unclear situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and US sanctions, oil prices may fluctuate repeatedly, providing limited guidance for the unilateral price direction of downstream fuel oil [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and re - balancing, with both long and short factors intertwined. Supply is tightening due to sanctions on Russia and Iran and attacks on Russian refineries, and downstream bunker demand is fair. But Middle East fuel oil exports are increasing, and Singapore's inventory is high [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure. Domestic production has slightly rebounded but remains at a relatively low level. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share being replaced and having more surplus capacity, with upward resistance despite some support at the lower valuation [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.13% at 2,764 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.68% at 3,385 yuan/ton [1] - Although OPEC has lifted the second - layer production limit, the increase in quotas does not necessarily mean an increase in actual production, and the short - term pressure on the market is limited [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is affected by sanctions and attacks on refineries, while Middle East exports are expected to increase, and Singapore's inventory is high [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Domestic production in August was 1.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,000 tons or 4.51%. There are no obvious signs of increased production in September, and the production trend this year is expected to be more stable than last year. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region is expected to decrease in September [2] Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]