Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the pig market is cautiously bearish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current weight - reducing slaughter of large - scale pig farms has weakened the holiday boost effect this year. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, but in the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the reduction of production capacity and national policy changes. For the egg market, the supply pressure makes the holiday boost weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market [2][5] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract yesterday was 13,230 yuan/ton, a change of - 75.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.56%. Spot: The price of external ternary live pigs in Henan was 13.51 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.18 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 13.76 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.10 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.26 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.11 yuan/kg. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" on September 9 was 118.35, down 0.16 points from the previous day. The national average wholesale price of pork was 19.86 yuan/kg, down 1.2% [1] Market Analysis - The current weight - reducing slaughter of large - scale pig farms has weakened the holiday boost effect. The long - term focus should be on the reduction of the number of breeding sows. The pig production capacity has remained at around 40.5 million heads for about a year, and there is room for reduction in the future production capacity. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, and in the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the reduction of production capacity and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2510 contract yesterday was 3060 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 58.00 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 1.93%. Spot: The egg spot price in Liaoning was 3.27 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.45 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 3.11 yuan/jin, unchanged. On September 9, the national production - link inventory was 0.48 days, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.79 days, unchanged [3][4] Market Analysis - High - temperature weather in mid - and early August led to frequent problems of egg storage and deterioration, and all links were cautious in purchasing. In late August, downstream stocking drove up egg prices slightly. School demand recovered this month, but tourism and catering demand declined significantly. Food enterprise processing demand was strong in mid - and early September, but ended near the Mid - Autumn Festival. Supermarkets and e - commerce still had some pre - holiday promotion demand, and overall demand gradually declined over time. Attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market on the spot market [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]
农产品日报2025-09-10：需求提振有限，猪价维持震荡-20250910
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-10 07:53