国投期货综合晨报-20250910

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The crude oil market's bearish trend continues, and the strategy of combining crude oil shorts with out - of - the - money call options can be maintained [2]. - Precious metals may remain strong before the Fed meeting, but volatility increases after consecutive rises [3]. - The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level with a probability of moving higher [4]. - The market conditions of various industries are complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each commodity, and corresponding investment strategies are recommended [2 - 48]. Summary by Category Metals - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell. Even in an optimistic scenario, the market supply - demand surplus will increase marginally, and the bearish trend persists. The strategy of combining shorts with out - of - the money call options can be continued [2]. - Precious Metals: U.S. non - farm employment data was revised down, and the Middle East geopolitical situation is tense. Precious metals may be strong before the Fed meeting, with increased volatility [3]. - Copper: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The market is waiting for U.S. inflation indicators. The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level with a chance of moving up [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Downstream开工率 increased seasonally, and it is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5]. - Alumina: The operating capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply is in surplus. The price is expected to find support around 2,830 yuan [6]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum may narrow further [7]. - Zinc: The fundamentals show increased supply and weak demand. The short - selling strategy on the profit margin of the futures market remains, and the domestic market may lead the overseas market down [8]. - Lead: The production of recycled lead decreased significantly, and the supply pressure eased, but the terminal consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan [9]. - Tin: Overnight, tin prices declined. The market is cautious about domestic tin consumption. A small number of low - position long positions can be held based on the MA60 line [10]. Energy - related - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The decrease in warehouse receipts provides some support for the prices of LU and FU, and the futures prices rose slightly at night [20]. - Asphalt: The shipment volume slowed down in early September, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The price is pressured by oil prices in the short term but has support at the bottom [21]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The international market is stable due to strong procurement demand. The domestic market has a strong bottom support, but the futures market's upside is limited [22]. Chemicals - Polysilicon: The futures price decreased, and the spot price was slightly adjusted down. The market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Industrial Silicon: Affected by the weakening sentiment, the price decreased slightly. In September, supply is expected to increase and demand to decrease. It is advisable to wait and see [12]. - PX & PTA: They opened low and then oscillated upwards. PX has limited production growth space, and PTA's price is driven by raw materials. The demand is improving [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: It oscillated at a low level at night. The supply and demand are mixed [30]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Resin: Short - fiber's supply and demand are stable, and it can be considered for long - position allocation. Bottle - grade resin has a long - term over - capacity problem [31]. Building Materials - Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil): Night - trading steel prices declined. Supply and demand are weak, and the market may oscillate in the short term [13]. - Iron Ore: The futures price oscillated weakly. The supply is stable, and the demand may recover. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - Coke & Coking Coal: The prices weakened during the day. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand may recover. The prices are affected by policy expectations and have high volatility [15][16]. - Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon: The prices oscillated during the day. The demand for iron - making may recover, and the supply of silicon - based alloys is increasing. Attention should be paid to the continuity of relevant policies [17][18]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The U.S. soybean good - quality rate decreased slightly. The global demand for soybean oil may drive up soybean crushing. The domestic supply may have a gap in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the medium - long term [35]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: U.S. soybean oil prices fell. Domestic soybean oil supply exceeds demand, and palm oil import losses are narrowing. They can be considered for low - price buying in the long term [36]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed - related products is uncertain, and the prices may rise [37]. - Corn: The futures price continued to fall at night. The new - season corn price has certain expectations, but the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - Cotton: U.S. cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic new - cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - Sugar: U.S. sugar prices oscillated. Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic sugar market is in good condition. The price is expected to oscillate [43]. - Apples: The futures price dropped significantly. The supply is expected to be stable, and the futures price may continue to decline [44]. - Wood: The price oscillated. The supply is low, and the demand is not in the peak season. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - Pulp: The futures price declined. The port inventory is relatively high, and the supply is loose. It is advisable to wait and see [46]. Livestock and Poultry - Pigs: The spot and futures prices of pigs declined. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to wait and see [40]. - Eggs: The futures price rebounded due to the departure of short - selling funds. The spot price is rising seasonally. The far - month contracts can be considered for long - position layout [41]. Financial Instruments - Stock Index Futures: The stock market was weak, and the futures prices fell. The market style may continue to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The prices of treasury bond futures fell across the board. The yield curve may become steeper [48]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): The spot price is expected to decline further, and the 10 - contract may fall below the low of the first half of the year. The far - month contracts are relatively strong but may also be under pressure [19].