国金期货生猪期货日报-20250910

1. Report Information - The report is a daily report on live hog futures, dated September 3, 2025, and the researcher is Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Contract Quotes - On September 3, 2025, the live hog lh2511 futures contract opened high and closed low, closing at 13,550 points, down 0.15% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 19,400 lots and an open interest of 73,600 lots [2] 2.2 Variety Prices - The prices of live hog futures contracts showed mixed performance throughout the day, with a total open interest of 180,527 lots, an increase of 384 lots from the previous trading day [4] 2.3 Related Quotes - The daily trading volume of live hog options was 5,004 lots, with a total open interest of 30,284 lots, an increase of 440 lots, and the total number of exercises on the day was 0 [7] 3. Spot Market 3.1 Basis Data - The live hog basis today was 315 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, indicating a slight convergence [8] 3.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of live hogs were 430 lots, with no change from the previous day [9][10] 4. Influencing Factors 4.1 Industry News - The national benchmark price of live hogs was 13.85 yuan/kg, down 0.14% day-on-day, still at a four-year low; the price in Deyang, Sichuan was 13.6 yuan/kg, and in Harbin, Heilongjiang was 13.4 yuan/kg, with a regional price difference of only 0.2 yuan/kg [10] 4.2 Technical Analysis - The short, medium, and long-term moving averages of the live hog lh2511 futures contract showed a typical short position arrangement, and the deviation values increased step by step. The short-term was oversold, but the trend remained unchanged [11] 5. Market Outlook - The current situation of "strong supply and average demand" in the live hog spot market remains unchanged, and the price is mainly in a narrow range of fluctuating downward. On the futures market, the price of the live hog lh2511 contract is running below the 20-day moving average and is still in a downward channel. Indicators show that the short side is dominant. If the market sentiment remains pessimistic, the price may weaken further in the short term [12]