铜日报：铜价高位回调重归平衡，下周利率决议将拍板后市-20250910

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market is expected to maintain high-level volatility in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and the core direction of fluctuation depends on the final decision of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 18th, the guidance of US inflation data, and the speed of domestic inventory depletion [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Daily Market Summary Market Data Changes - On September 9th, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose slightly by 90 yuan to 79,740 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation pattern. The spot premium continued to weaken, with the premium of premium copper dropping from 190 yuan/ton on September 8th to 125 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper narrowing from 60 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount widened to 81.07 dollars/ton, highlighting the pressure of loose overseas spot supply [1] - On September 8th, the LME copper open interest increased by 1,928 lots to over 290,000 lots. However, with the high price of SHFE copper, domestic spot trading volume was suppressed, and downstream procurement remained cautious, lacking continuous short - term drivers [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes in the Industry Chain - Supply: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia suspended mining operations due to a sudden ore outburst accident, which may disturb market sentiment in the short term. China's imports of unforged copper in August decreased month - on - month to 425,000 tons, reflecting the slowdown of import demand in the off - season, but the release of smelter capacity still supported sufficient supply of electrolytic copper [2] - Demand: High copper prices suppressed the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory. The spot premium of electrolytic copper in North China continued to weaken. Orders in the power, construction, and consumer electronics sectors were seasonally weak. Coupled with the accumulation of high - price copper product inventory, terminal procurement was mostly for rigid demand, and the demand side lacked continuous stimulation [2] - Inventory: Global visible inventories were differentiated. On September 8th, LME copper inventory increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, reaching a new high in nearly a month; SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 550 tons to 155,000 tons, still at a high level this year. The overall inventory pressure was not relieved, and the spot de - stocking rhythm was slow [2] Market Summary - The Indonesian mine accident on the supply side may briefly boost market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited. On the demand side, high prices suppress restocking, and the weakening of the spot discount restricts the rebound space. The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the decline of the US dollar index on the macro - level provide support for copper prices, but market caution has increased before the release of CPI data [3] Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM:1 copper on September 9th was 79,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.01%. The premium of premium copper decreased by 65 yuan to 125 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 34.21%. The premium of flat - water copper decreased by 20 yuan to 40 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 33.33%. The premium of wet - process copper decreased by 10 yuan to - 40 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 33.33%. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened [5] - The SHFE copper price on September 9th was 79,740 yuan/ton, a rise of 90 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of 0.11%. The LME copper price rose slightly. The LME copper inventory increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, with a change rate of 0.82%. The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, with a change rate of - 0.35% [5] Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes various data charts such as China PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][10][12]