新能源及有色金属日报2025-09-10：现货贴水持续走扩-20250910

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both unilateral and arbitrage strategies is neutral [6] 2. Core View - Domestic apparent consumption of zinc maintains high - speed growth but cannot offset supply pressure, leading to continuous expansion of social inventory. Zinc prices show a weak and volatile trend, with the spot discount widening. There is a contradictory situation between domestic and overseas markets, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are still weak, but overseas factors provide favorable price support [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $16.46 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,190 yuan per ton, with a change of 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 65 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,160 yuan per ton, with a change of 40 yuan per ton and a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,170 yuan per ton, with a change of 40 yuan per ton and a spot premium of - 85 yuan per ton [2] - Futures: On September 9, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,245 yuan per ton and closed at 22,125 yuan per ton, a decrease of 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,465 lots, and the open interest was 108,199 lots. The highest price was 22,265 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,115 yuan per ton [3] - Inventory: As of September 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 152,100 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 51,025 tons, a change of - 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Domestic consumption growth is high - speed but can't counter supply pressure, resulting in continuous inventory build - up. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with domestic TC slightly decreasing in September but still having cost - effectiveness, and import TC expected to rise. Domestic smelting profit exists, and supply pressure is large, with an 28% year - on - year increase in zinc ingot production in August. In the consumption peak season, inventory build - up is likely. Overseas, the macro - environment is positive, zinc supply contracts, consumption is stable, inventory is decreasing, the discount is narrowing, and there is a risk of a short squeeze [5] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6]