Report Overview - The report is a 2025-09-10 agricultural products morning report from Wukuang Futures, covering soybeans, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1]. Soybeans and Soybean Meal Market Situation - On Tuesday, U.S. soybeans fell slightly due to demand concerns. The domestic soybean meal market declined under high inventory pressure. Domestic soybean meal trading was fair, with high pick-up volumes. East China spot prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis remained at 01-100 [2]. - Last week, downstream inventory days decreased by 0.08 days to 8.8 days. Oil mill soybean inventories reached a five-year high, and soybean meal inventories increased slightly. According to MYSTEEL, 2.3 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.26 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2]. Outlook - U.S. soybean production areas may see less rainfall in the next two weeks, and the soybean good-to-excellent rate may continue to decline. Pay attention to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on soybean yields [2]. - In Brazil, the premium decreased and then rebounded. Overall, the USDA's previous significant reduction in planting area is bullish for CBOT soybeans, but the upward momentum of soybean import costs under the background of global protein raw material oversupply needs to be tested [2]. Trading Strategy - Soybean import costs have recently been weak and stable. Pay attention to the cost performance after stabilization. The domestic soybean meal market has high pick-up volumes, and the spot market may start to destock in September, supporting oil mill crushing margins [4]. - In the future, pay attention to whether the improvement of the U.S. soybean market and the Brazilian planting season can improve the current oversupply situation. Regarding crushing margins, pay attention to whether the pick-up volume can be sustained. It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and be cautious about crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils Important Information - According to a Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1-10 increased by 23.67%. Exports are expected to increase by 16.5%-21.3% in the first 15 days, 13.61%-17.5% in the first 20 days, 10.9%-16.4% in the first 25 days, and 10.2% for the whole month [6]. - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1-15 increased by 0.88% month-on-month, is expected to increase by 0.3% in the first 20 days, decrease by 1.21% in the first 25 days, and decrease by 2.65% for the whole month [6]. - Analysts expect the U.S. 2025/26 soybean production to be 4.271 billion bushels, with a range of 4.205-4.347 billion bushels. The USDA previously estimated 4.292 billion bushels in August [6]. Market Situation - On Tuesday, China's three major oils oscillated and declined. Stable demand from importing countries, low inventories in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply from Indonesia provide continuous bullish factors. Recent commodity corrections, high domestic oil inventories, and high oil valuations suppress buying sentiment. Foreign investors slightly reduced their long positions in oils on Tuesday. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. Trading Strategy - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeded expectations, Southeast Asian palm oil production potential is insufficient, Indian and Southeast Asian vegetable oil inventories are low, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the oil price center. Oils are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose supply and demand, with a tight outlook. Before the inventories in consuming and producing regions are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback from consumer demand, oils are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term. Given the current high valuations, observe high-frequency data and adopt a strategy of buying on dips after a decline [9]. Sugar Key Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The January contract closed at 5,518 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in Guangxi remained unchanged, while those in Yunnan were stable. Processing sugar factory quotes decreased by 0-20 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 352 yuan/ton [11]. - In August, China's sugar sales were 450,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 160,000 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 200,000 tons. The national industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 60,000 tons. Brazil exported 840,000 tons of sugar to China in August, a month-on-month increase of 390,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 250,000 tons [11]. Trading Strategy - Domestically, increased imports, poor sales data in major producing areas in August, and expected production increases in Guangxi in the new season are bearish factors. Internationally, Brazil's central-southern region had a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production in the first half of August. Overall, the sugar price is expected to decline. The downward space depends on the international market. If Brazil's production continues to increase from August to October, the raw sugar price may continue to fall, and the domestic sugar price may reach new lows. Otherwise, the raw sugar price may oscillate or rebound slightly, and the domestic sugar price trend will be more complex [12]. Cotton Key Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline slightly. The January contract closed at 13,835 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B dropped by 87 yuan/ton to 15,335 yuan/ton. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,500 yuan/ton [14]. - As of September 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 66%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 4.1 percentage point decrease from the same period last year. The weaving mill operating rate was 37.4%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 13.9 percentage point decrease from the same period last year. The weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.42 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons from the previous week and 410,000 tons from the same period last year [14]. - As of August 28, the cumulative U.S. cotton export contracts for the 2025/26 season were 852,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 179,100 tons. The weekly export contracts were 55,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20,300 tons. Brazil exported 10,500 tons of raw cotton to China in August, a year-on-year decrease of 8,000 tons and a month-on-month increase of 1,000 tons [14]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, downstream consumption remains weak, and there are expectations of a bumper harvest in the new season. However, domestic cotton inventories are at a historically low level, creating a balance between bullish and bearish factors. Technically, the short-term Zhengzhou cotton price has encountered strong selling pressure after a rebound, and the cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. Eggs Spot Information - Most domestic egg prices were stable, with a few increasing. The average price in major producing areas rose slightly by 0.01 yuan to 3.40 yuan/jin. The prices in Heishan and Guantao remained unchanged. The market had a small inventory of eggs, and consumer demand in major sales areas was average. Dealers were moderately active in purchasing, and trading was stable. Egg prices are expected to remain mostly stable with a few increases [17]. Trading Strategy - The supply base is still large, and there is a large inventory of cold-stored eggs. After a short-term increase, the spot price is expected to decline. However, the supply pressure will decrease after a large number of laying hens are culled, and the storage conditions will improve after the temperature drops. If the spot price decline is less than expected, it may trigger reverse stocking, limiting the decline of spot and futures prices. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short-term long positions if there is significant position building after a decline [18]. Pigs Spot Information - Domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.21 yuan to 13.6 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.09 yuan to 13.27 yuan/kg. After continuous declines, farmers may have a short-term intention to support prices, but there is no positive change in downstream demand. Slaughterhouses may purchase at lower prices. Pig prices are expected to be stable or decline slightly today, with a narrowing decline [20]. Trading Strategy - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is large, and the supply in September is expected to be bearish. However, potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state purchases are accumulating. The spot price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking the basis for a significant increase or decrease. The market has already priced in the large supply, and the futures price, especially the near-term contract, has declined significantly and is at a discount to the spot price. It is not cost-effective to short aggressively. The strategy should focus on potential rebounds due to consumption factors and short opportunities after rebounds. The reverse spread strategy for the far-term contract remains valid [21].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250910
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-10 08:27