Minsheng Securities·2025-09-10 08:32Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated positively with a recommendation for leading companies and flexible targets in both the ordinary and special steel sectors [4][4][4]. Core Insights - The steel sector experienced a recovery in profits, with the SW Steel index rising by 3.82% in H1 2025 and 15.62% from July to now, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1][9][11]. - The profitability of the ordinary steel sector saw a significant year-on-year increase of 1831.92% in Q2 2025, while special steel experienced a slight decrease of 2.72% [2][16]. - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of steel production capacity, driven by policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and improving environmental standards [3][4][55]. Summary by Sections Steel Sector Performance - In H1 2025, the steel sector's performance was weaker than the Shanghai Composite Index, but improved significantly from July onwards, aligning closely with the index [11][12]. - The ordinary steel sector showed a 4.47% increase in H1 2025 and a 17.63% increase from July to now, while special steel increased by 5.03% and 10.41% respectively [12][13]. Financial Metrics - The steel sector's total revenue in H1 2025 was 945.53 billion, down 9.16% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 157.66% to 13.14 billion [16][16]. - The gross profit margin improved to 7.47% in Q2 2025, with a net profit margin of 1.89% [19][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel, which are expected to benefit from policy support and improved profitability [4][4][4]. - For the special steel sector, companies benefiting from downstream demand in automotive and renewable energy sectors are recommended, including Xianglou New Materials and Jiuli Special Materials [4][4][4]. Market Trends - The report notes that manufacturing and direct exports are supporting steel demand, while the construction sector remains weak but shows signs of stabilization [3][4]. - The steel industry is expected to undergo significant capacity optimization, with new regulations promoting high-value, low-carbon production methods [55][55].