航运日报：MSC、YML以及HPL10月上半月价格公布，10合约估值顶部继续下修-20250910

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The valuation ceiling of the October contract continues to be revised downward, and it is recommended to mainly short - allocate the off - season October contract. The current valuation ceiling of the October contract may be around 1200 points [1][6]. - The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. In the near future, one can bet on the price increase expectation in November for the December contract. As the bottom of the freight rate becomes clearer, one can gradually go long to trade the price increase announcements by shipping companies for November and December [7]. - For the strategy, the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to short the October contract when the opportunity arises [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Futures Price - As of September 9, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 78,742.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 34,654.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1527.40, 1256.70, 1434.50, 1608.00, 1268.70, and 1682.90 respectively [8]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different alliances and shipping companies are provided. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in the 38th week is 1050/1760; HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of September and the first half of October is 935/1535. In the Ocean Alliance, CMA's Shanghai - Rotterdam price for the second - half - September sailing is 1210/2020 [1][2]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on August 29 is 1315.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2189.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3073.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on September 1 is 1566.46 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 980.48 points [8]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of September 7, 2025, 182 container ships with a total capacity of 1.472 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. From 2025 - 2028, there is still significant supply - side pressure, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 35 ships [3]. - Dynamic Supply: MSC and the Gemini Alliance announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. The monthly average capacity in September and October for the China - European base ports is 282,500 TEU and 278,200 TEU respectively. HPL announced two additional ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU [4][5]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events: An Israeli official said that Israel attacked senior Hamas political leaders in Doha, Qatar, escalating the conflict. Qatar condemned the attack, stating that it violated international law [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the container import demand in the US from September - December will decline by about 20% compared to the same period in 2024. During the fourth quarter, Western holidays lead to high shipping volumes, and shipping companies adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, if US - bound ships are diverted to European routes, it may put pressure on European freight rates [7].