氯碱日报：关注烧碱下游采购节奏-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC fluctuates mainly with macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase, demand remains weak, exports are affected by policies, and inventory is high. The "anti - involution" factor affects the market, and the short - term is macro - led, with policy progress to be monitored [3]. - Caustic soda spot is mainly stable. Supply from chlor - alkali enterprises rises, demand from major downstream in Shandong is stable with increasing delivery, and non - aluminum downstream demand is rising. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment and production in Guangxi, and cost support remains [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures: The closing price of the main PVC contract is 4847 yuan/ton (- 43), the East China basis is - 197 yuan/ton (+ 23), and the South China basis is - 97 yuan/ton (+ 43) [1]. - Spot: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4650 yuan/ton (- 20), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is at 4750 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Upstream profit: Coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+ 0), calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+ 0), calcium carbide profit is - 64 yuan/ton (+ 0), PVC calcium carbide - based gross profit is - 421 yuan/ton (- 22), PVC ethylene - based gross profit is - 671 yuan/ton (- 43), and PVC export profit is 13.1 dollars/ton (+ 0.1) [1]. - Inventory and operation: PVC factory inventory is 31.6 tons (+ 0.4), social inventory is 53.3 tons (+ 1.1), calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 77.65% (+ 2.41%), ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 72.59% (+ 3.93%), and overall PVC operation rate is 76.18% (+ 2.85%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.1 tons (- 2.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2569 yuan/ton (- 14), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 150 yuan/ton (+ 14) [1]. - Spot: 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 870 yuan/ton (+ 0), and 50% liquid caustic soda is at 1360 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Upstream profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 944.5 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 612.53 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.78 tons (+ 0.83), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (+ 0.00), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.20% (+ 1.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The alumina operation rate is 84.38% (- 1.20%), the dyeing operation rate in East China is 65.63% (+ 0.90%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 87.10% (+ 1.08%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Domestic PVC plant overhauls continue to decrease, and supply is expected to increase. Newly - commissioned plants lead to abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream product operation remains low, with rigid procurement. Attention should be paid to downstream raw material replenishment in the peak season. Export orders and deliveries decline, and the export outlook in Q4 weakens [3]. - Inventory: PVC social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory is high. Futures warehouse receipts are rising, suppressing prices [3]. - Profit: Chlor - alkali profit can still be compressed, and supply - demand remains weak [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: Chlor - alkali enterprise operation rates rise slightly, reaching a high level [3]. - Demand: The purchase price of major downstream alumina factories in Shandong is stable, with increasing deliveries. Non - aluminum downstream operation rises, with rigid procurement. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment and production in Guangxi [3]. - Cost: The electricity price in Shandong rises slightly in September, and the liquid chlorine subsidy is expected to increase, providing cost support [3]. - Profit: Chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment [4]. - Inter - delivery: Recommend gradually building long positions in the positive spread when V01 - 05 is below - 300 [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Neutral [4]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread on dips [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]