8月通胀点评：核心CPI同比增速小幅上行

Inflation Overview - August CPI year-on-year growth rate was lower than consensus expectations, with a decrease of 0.4% compared to July[2] - Core CPI increased by 0.9% year-on-year, while service prices rose by 0.6%[2] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, contributing to a downward impact on CPI growth by approximately 0.51 percentage points[5] Price Index Trends - August PPI remained flat month-on-month but decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with production materials down by 3.2% and living materials down by 1.7%[16] - The decline in PPI year-on-year has narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to July, marking the first reduction in the decline since March[17] Structural Analysis - The internal structure of CPI showed significant differentiation, with food prices exerting a greater downward influence compared to July[7] - Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.43 percentage points to CPI growth[6] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to show a noticeable upward trend starting in September due to base effects, but structural issues remain a concern[7] - To address weak CPI growth, measures should focus on food price stabilization, durable goods supply adjustments, and stimulating demand in service sectors[7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include a second wave of global inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S., and increasing international complexities[32]