美国住宅市场2025上半年回顾：住房可负担性探底，库存与价格矛盾仍存

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The U.S. housing market in H1 2025 is under significant pressure from high prices and interest rates, leading to historically low housing affordability and a decline in both new and existing home sales [1][11]. - Existing home prices have reached record highs, with the median price in June 2025 at $433,000, marking a 1.4% year-on-year increase [20]. - The overall inventory of homes has increased slightly, but existing home inventory remains tight, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances [3][48]. Summary by Sections Transactions & Prices - In the first half of 2025, new home sales totaled 330,000 units, down 3.7% year-on-year, while existing home sales were 2.04 million units, a slight decrease of 0.2% [2][11]. - The median price for new homes averaged $417,000, a decrease of 1.2% compared to the same period in 2024, while existing homes saw a median price increase of 2.4% to $411,000 [2][20]. Supply - As of June 2025, new home inventory stood at 502,000 units, a 2.7% increase from December 2024, while existing home inventory rose to 1.54 million units, a 35.1% increase [3][48]. - The months of supply for existing homes is 4.7 months, indicating a continued shortage despite the marginal increase in inventory [48]. Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since early 2025, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates fluctuating between 6.65% and 6.96% [4][53]. - As of August 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slightly decreased to 6.59%, still within the 80.4% percentile historically [4][53]. H2 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates that high construction material costs and increased inventory pressures will lead to a conservative approach from builders, resulting in a continued decline in new home starts [60]. - The "rate lock effect" is expected to persist, limiting existing homeowners' willingness to sell, thereby exacerbating the existing home inventory shortage [1][60].