宏观数据观察：东海观察8月通胀超预期下降，通胀仍旧较低

Group 1: Report Core View - In August, the year-on-year decline of CPI exceeded expectations, and the inflation remained low. The decline of PPI narrowed. In the short term, the price center of domestic demand - type commodities is expected to move up, and the decline of PPI will gradually narrow. With the implementation of policies, CPI is expected to gradually recover and rise [3][4][5]. Group 2: Specific Data Analysis CPI - In August, CPI year - on - year growth was - 0.4%, expected - 0.2%, previous value 0%; month - on - month 0%, expected 0.1%, previous value 0.4%. The inflation decline exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the high comparison base in the same period last year and the lower - than - seasonal increase in food prices this month [3]. - Food prices decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points compared with last month, pulling down CPI year - on - year by about 0.51 percentage points. Non - food prices rose by 0.5%, up 0.2% from last month, pulling up CPI year - on - year by 0.43% [3]. - Core CPI year - on - year increase continued to expand for the 4th month. This month, core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage point compared with last month [3]. - Service prices rose by 0.6% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage point compared with last month, affecting CPI year - on - year increase by about 0.23 percentage points [4]. PPI - In August, PPI year - on - year growth was - 2.9%, expected - 2.9%, previous value - 3.6%. The year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared with last month, the first narrowing since March this year [4]. - In the 2.9% year - on - year decline of PPI in August, the carry - over effect was about - 0.7 percentage points, and the new effect of price changes this year was about - 2.2 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Prices CPI - The high comparison base in the same period last year and the lower - than - seasonal increase in food prices led to the year - on - year decline of CPI [3]. - The continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption led to the continuous expansion of the year - on - year increase of core CPI [3]. PPI - Domestically, the continuous optimization of the market competition order, the growth of new development drivers, and the increase in upgraded consumption demand led to the narrowing of the year - on - year decline of PPI [4]. - Internationally, OPEC+ production increase and the short - term easing of the Russia - Ukraine relationship led to the overall decline of the crude oil price center; the overall increase in overseas commodity demand and the weakening of the US dollar led to the overall rebound of non - ferrous prices [3][4]. Group 4: Future Price Trends - As China gradually enters the peak season of commodity consumption, the construction of real estate and infrastructure projects will speed up, and overseas demand is improving. The demand side will be strengthened in the short term. With the deepening of anti - involution in relevant domestic industries, the price center of domestic demand - type commodities is expected to move up [3][4]. - The decline of PPI will gradually narrow, and prices are expected to gradually stabilize with the continuous manifestation of policy effects [3][4][5]. - CPI is expected to gradually recover and rise as domestic demand policies are further strengthened and implemented, and the impact of the high base in the same period last year is gradually eliminated [3][4][5].