铁矿石价格走强，西芒杜供应生变？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, driven by steel mill复产 and the expectation of restocking before the National Day holiday, iron ore prices still have room for rebound, with the upside range between 830 - 850 (100 - 102 US dollars/ton). But the ultimate contradiction in the black industry chain needs to be resolved by a decline in hot metal production. In the context of the industrial chain's negative feedback, ore prices face significant downward pressure, and the expected trigger time may be between late October and early November [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Impact of News on West Africa's Simandou Iron Ore - The news that the Guinea government requires developers such as Rio Tinto and Baowu to build processing and smelting plants in Simandou caused iron ore price fluctuations. However, the news is unlikely to affect the commissioning and shipping process of Simandou Iron Mine as Rio Tinto's main task is to ensure the first shipment by the end of 2025 [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Logic for the Recent Strength of Iron Ore Prices - The proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 national steel mills is still over 60%. After the September 3rd military parade, steel mills are likely to resume production this week, and ore demand will recover [1]. - Steel mill iron ore inventories are at a low level, and there is an expectation of restocking before the October 1st holiday [1]. - Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly by 780,000 tons, causing an expectation of a phased supply contraction [1]. 3.3 Market Situation in September and October - September is a window period for iron ore price increases. Although steel mill profits have been significantly compressed, they are still in a profitable state, and the steel mill resumption process will continue. The logic of steel mills restocking raw materials before the October 1st holiday is also reasonable [4]. - In October, contradictions in the iron ore market will gradually accumulate. Against the background of weak steel demand and steel mill resumption, steel mill profits will be further compressed. Once in a continuous loss state, steel mills' willingness to actively reduce production will increase. In winter, there may be phased production restrictions in northern regions, and there may be negative feedback pressure [4][5]. 3.4 Historical Experience and Market Pressure - Before the start of winter storage each year, the steel market will have a process of finding the psychological winter storage price downward. If combined with low steel mill profits and industrial chain negative feedback, iron ore prices may face greater pressure [7].