银河期货沥青日报-20250910

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is short - term tight, demand is stable month - on - month. In a weak supply - demand environment, refinery inventories are rising steadily while social inventories are steadily decreasing. Asphalt lacks obvious drivers, and its spot price is expected to be weak. The crack spread is dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 and 3500 [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - Futures Prices and Positions: On September 10, 2025, prices of BU2511 (main contract), BU2512, BU2601, SC2510, and Brent first - line all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 0.77%, 0.87%, 0.70%, and 0.96% respectively. The main contract's position increased by 1.18%, trading volume increased by 33.77%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.46% [2] - Basis and Monthly Spreads: BU12 - 01 decreased by 11.54%, BU11 - 12 increased by 8.51%. The basis between Shandong, East China, and South China and the main contract decreased by 5.57%, 14.69%, and 22.93% respectively [2] - Industrial Chain Spot Prices: Shandong's market price increased by 0.28%, South China's decreased by 0.28%, and East China's remained unchanged. Prices of Shandong gasoline, diesel, and petroleum coke increased, the dilution asphalt discount remained unchanged, and the exchange - rate mid - price increased by 0.08% [2] - Spread Profits: Asphalt refinery profit decreased by 176.63%, refined - oil comprehensive profit decreased by 6.70%, BU - SC crack decreased by 0.34%, gasoline spot - Brent decreased by 3.00%, and diesel spot - Brent decreased by 4.27% [2] Part 2: Market Analysis - Market Overview: On September 10, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3789 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the previous day. In North China, resources were tight and trader prices rose slightly; in Shandong, demand was stable and some refinery prices increased slightly; in East China, demand was tepid and prices were stable; in South China, demand was rising and some refinery prices increased [5][6] - Price Forecast by Region: In Shandong, with Dongming Petrochemical resuming production, the supply - demand pattern will be loose and prices may be stable. In the Yangtze River Delta, with increased planned production of some main refineries, prices are restricted. In South China, with some refinery maintenance plans, prices may trend upward in the short term [5][6] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures including BU main - contract closing price, position, and market prices in different regions over the years, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Wind or Steel Union [10]