2025年8月价格数据点评：PPI迎来上行拐点

CPI Insights - In August 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0% in the previous month, and below the market expectation of -0.2%[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, slightly up from 0.8% in the previous month, indicating a continuous recovery over four months[2] - Food prices significantly impacted the CPI, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3% in August, compared to -1.6% in July[4] PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.9% in August from 3.6% in July, aligning with market expectations[2] - The PPI month-on-month change was stable at 0%, improving from a decline of 0.2% in the previous month[2] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to a stabilization in prices for coal, steel, and new energy vehicles, contributing to the PPI's upward trend[8] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to return to positive growth in Q4 2025 as high base effects diminish and pig production capacity management continues[3] - The PPI is anticipated to gradually recover, although the process may be slow due to a weaker demand environment compared to 2015-2016[11] - The overall supply-demand balance in industries is expected to improve, indicating that the worst phase for PPI has likely passed[11]