East Money Securities·2025-09-10 10:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the construction sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - The construction sector is experiencing a narrowing decline in revenue and profits, with improved cash flow conditions noted in Q2 2025 [1][6]. - The report highlights the resilience of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in securing new orders, particularly in high-demand sectors such as water conservancy and railways [6][37]. - The overall investment environment remains challenging, but strategic government initiatives, including the acceleration of special bond issuance, are expected to support infrastructure funding in the latter half of 2025 [26][31]. Summary by Sections Cash Flow - In H1 2025, listed construction companies reported a net cash outflow of 482.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.5 billion yuan year-on-year. Q2 2025 saw a single-quarter net cash outflow of 43.22 billion yuan, down 32.7 billion yuan year-on-year. The cash collection ratio improved to 95.18% in H1 and 87.23% in Q2, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.44 and 11.67 percentage points, respectively [2]. Orders - New signed orders for the construction sector in H1 2025 totaled 8.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1%. However, Q2 2025 saw a single-quarter new signed order of 4.3 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1%. The report indicates that SOEs showed resilience with a 0% change in new signed orders, while local SOEs and private enterprises experienced declines of 12% and 4%, respectively [6][37]. Performance - The construction sector achieved a revenue of 39.1 trillion yuan in H1 2025, down 5.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 90.98 billion yuan, a decline of 6.4%. In Q2 2025, revenue was 20 trillion yuan, down 5.1%, and net profit was 44.91 billion yuan, down 3.9%. The gross profit margin improved to 10.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.04 percentage points [6][37]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on state-owned construction enterprises benefiting from national key projects and high-demand regional SOEs. Specific recommendations include China Railway Construction, China State Construction, and China Communications Construction [7]. - It also suggests investing in high-demand segments such as major strategic projects and new productivity-enhancing technologies like AI and robotics [7].