Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 10, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price trend of coking coal. After the military parade, the logic of steel mill production restrictions gradually disappeared, and a major bearish factor restricting coking coal also faded. On Friday, news of anti - involution emerged again, leading to significant increases in popular varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal. Ferroalloys, which were near the cost line after a decline, also rebounded. The expected decline in ferroalloy production profit means there is limited incentive for further production increases. With the arrival of the flat - water season, the output in the southern silicon - manganese production areas will gradually decline. The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, with some contract structures changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal on the raw material side has not improved, and its contango has deepened. The long - term trading logic lies in the anti - involution expectation. The market still has some momentum, and there are expectations of supply - side contraction. The market's long - short logic is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The widening price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese, namely semi - coke and manganese ore, makes it cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400. It is also suggested to lightly go long on the ferrosilicon main contract 11 at around 5450 and the silicon - manganese main contract 01 at around 5700. However, if there is no substantial progress in anti - involution, the risk of a sharp fall after a rise is relatively high [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.74%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 34.5% [3] - Silicon - manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.67%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 29.1% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is planned based on orders, to prevent rising ferroalloy prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradictions - The short - term upward trend of ferroalloys is affected by the price trend of coking coal and anti - involution news. The production profit decline and the flat - water season will lead to a decrease in production. The term structure of ferroalloys is improving, while that of coking coal is not. The long - term trading logic is based on anti - involution expectations, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Ferrosilicon: The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 91,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.76%, and the total inventory is 158,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47% [6] - Silicon - manganese: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. South 32 announced its manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025, with South African semi - carbonate manganese ore at $4.1 per ton - degree (+0.05) and Australian manganese ore at $4.5 per ton - degree (+0.05). There are market rumors about changes in the shipping situation of Gabonese ore, with a possible reduction in October, which may affect manganese ore prices and thus the cost of manganese - silicon [6] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Ferrosilicon: The enterprise inventory of ferrosilicon is 66,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 20,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%. Ferrosilicon output is 115,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [7] - Silicon - manganese: In the long run, the sluggish real - estate market and the decline of the black - related sector have raised doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon - manganese. The enterprise inventory of silicon - manganese is 160,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.72%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 123,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [7] Daily Data - Ferrosilicon: The report provides daily data on ferrosilicon basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai [8] - Silicon - manganese: The report provides daily data on silicon - manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou [9][10] Term Structure and Seasonal Charts - The report includes term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicon - manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads [11][12][13]
铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250910
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-10 10:47