煤焦日报：多空僵持，煤焦震荡下行-20250910

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - On September 10, the coke main contract closed at 1,603 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.77%. The open interest of the main contract was 46,500 lots, a decrease of 678 lots from the previous trading day. The first round of price cuts for coke by mainstream steel mills in Shandong was successfully implemented this week, and the current quoted price of quasi-primary wet quenched coke at ports is 1,520 yuan/ton. The coke spot price is under downward pressure. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of coke have not improved significantly. After the September 3 parade, coke enterprises and steel mills gradually resumed production, but due to the shrinking profits of downstream steel mills, concerns on the demand side are emerging. The "anti-involution" policy expectation still disturbs from time to time, supporting coke to maintain a volatile operation for the time being. Attention should be paid to whether specific policies will be introduced in the future [3][32]. - On September 10, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,117 points, with an intraday decline of 1.93%. The open interest of the main contract was 704,400 lots, a decrease of 13,182 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Recently, the domestic coking coal production has been suppressed to a certain extent, but due to the lack of expectation of further production cuts, the optimistic atmosphere in the futures market has cooled down, and the market has gradually returned to the logic of demand drag, driving the coking coal main contract to operate weakly and volatilely. The bullish risk lies in the secondary fermentation of the "anti-involution" policy [3][32]. Summary by Directory Industry News - Trump said he was willing to significantly increase tariffs on China and India, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded. China is not the creator or party to the Ukraine crisis, and firmly opposes using China as an excuse and imposing so - called economic pressure on China [6]. - On September 10, the online auction of coking coal in the Lvliang market showed mixed results. The total listed volume was 144,000 tons, and all were sold. The price of Lishi low - sulfur primary coking coal decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 1,366 yuan/ton; the price of Fangshan medium - sulfur primary coking coal decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 1,150 yuan/ton; the price of Xiaoyi high - sulfur fat clean coal decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 1,144 yuan/ton; the price of Liulin high - sulfur coking clean coal increased by 34 yuan/ton to 1,156 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market will continue to operate in a volatile manner [7]. Spot Market - The report provides the price data of coke and coking coal in different ports, including the current price, week - on - week change, month - on - month change, year - on - year change, and change compared with the same period. For example, the current price of quasi - primary coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.06%, and a decrease of 7.32% compared with the same period [11]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke main contract is 1,603 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.77%, the highest price is 1,631 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1,578.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 23,655 lots, an increase of 3,754 lots, and the open interest is 46,467 lots, a decrease of 678 lots. The closing price of the coking coal main contract is 1,117 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.93%, the highest price is 1,131.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1,101.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 1,007,217 lots, a decrease of 18,010 lots, and the open interest is 704,402 lots, a decrease of 13,182 lots [12]. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal in different sectors (such as independent coking plants, steel mills, and ports) over the years, as well as other related charts such as domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [13][14][16][20][26][28][30]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is the same as the core views, emphasizing the price trend, market supply and demand, and the impact of policies [32].