2025、26年度玉米市场供需形势展望：比稳中略降，产需缺口缩小，预计年度结余以平衡状态为主

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Newly harvested grains will increase in production, with a significant year - on - year increase in total supply, a slight year - on - year decline in total consumption, and a narrowing production - demand gap. The annual balance is expected to be mainly in a balanced state. - In the international market, the supply - demand pattern of corn in the new year is expected to be generally loose, with production reaching a record high, consumption increasing steadily, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio slightly decreasing [4][67][68]. Summary by Directory Supply Side - In the 2025/26 season, the expected increase in new crop production is strong, and the new total supply is expected to increase year - on - year by about 12.2%, reaching 27344 million tons [12][31]. - For new crop production expectations, the sown area in 2025 is generally stable, with a slight decrease in the three northeastern provinces and one autonomous region. The national average yield per unit area is expected to increase by 10.7% year - on - year, and the national corn output is estimated to be about 26644 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 9.6%. The planting cost has decreased, and the corn collection and port cost in Heilongjiang is about 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton [13][14][16]. - For imports, it is expected that the 2025/26 corn imports will not exceed the quota, currently estimated at 7 million tons. The imports will feature strict control, multiple sources, and low volume [24]. - For other grain substitutions, the import of barley in 2025/26 is expected to continue to decline, and the annual import volume may fall below 1 million tons; the import of sorghum is expected to be low - volume with a slight recovery, reaching 5.5 - 6.5 million tons [33][37]. Demand Side - In 2025/26, the feed consumption of corn is expected to reach 176 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons, a decline of 1.13%; the industrial consumption is expected to reach 79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons, an increase of 1.28% [38]. - For feed demand, the overall feed demand is expected to decline slightly. Pig feed consumption is expected to be stable with a slight decline, and poultry feed demand is expected to remain stable [44]. - For industrial consumption, it is expected to increase slightly. The demand for corn starch may increase, while the alcohol consumption may continue to decline [52][53]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - For the global supply - demand pattern, in 2025/26, the global corn production is expected to reach 1288.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the total consumption is expected to reach 1289.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the ending inventory is expected to be 283 million tons, a decrease of 570,000 tons compared to the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 22.07%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The overall supply - demand structure is expected to be balanced and slightly loose [57][58]. - For the US supply - demand situation, in 2025/26, the US corn production is expected to reach 425.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.61%; the total consumption is expected to reach 332.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.38%; the export volume is expected to reach 73.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.95%; the ending inventory is expected to be 53.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 62.2% [61]. - For the substitution balance structure of the Chinese corn market after inventory reduction, in 2025/26, the sown area is expected to be 36.29 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 hectares, an increase of 0.08%; the output is expected to be about 266.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.63 million tons, an increase of 9.6%; the import volume is estimated at about 7 million tons; the feed consumption is expected to reach 176 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons; the industrial consumption is expected to reach 79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons; the state - owned inventory is expected to remain stable at 41 million tons [63][64][65]. Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The international corn supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, while the domestic supply will increase significantly, and the consumption will decline slightly, with the annual balance mainly in a balanced state [67][68]. - Strategy: - During the farmers' grain - selling period, it is recommended to short the C2601 contract on rallies. - During the traders' selling period, if the futures price falls below 2000 yuan/ton during the grain - selling season and most of the trade inventory has been built, the futures price may strengthen. - For unilateral investors, it is recommended to short the C2601 contract on rallies during the grain - selling season. - For spot enterprises, traders are advised to sell - hedge the built inventory on rallies, build inventory gradually on dips, and sell the inventory gradually during the selling season when the price rebounds; downstream grain - using enterprises should maintain a safe inventory, stock up more at low prices during the grain - selling season, and sell - hedge long - term inventory on rallies to lock in risks [6][69].