原油策略：原油震荡上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a long - term strategy of shorting at high prices and short - term partial profit - taking on short positions [1] Core Viewpoints - In the long run, as the consumption peak season ends, the weak US non - farm payroll data raises concerns about crude oil demand, and OPEC+ accelerates production increases, leading to a weakening of crude oil supply and demand. In the short term, the sharp drop in crude oil prices has released some of the negative news from the OPEC+ meeting, and the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising [1] Summary by Related Content Strategy Analysis - It is recommended to partially take profits on short positions. In the long term, short at high prices. In the short term, due to the release of some negative news and rising geopolitical risks, partially take profits on short positions [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 rose 0.58% to 486.2 yuan/ton, with a minimum of 481.9 yuan/ton, a maximum of 489.4 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1160 to 23689 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 210,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2025. It raised the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 from $67.22/barrel to $67.80/barrel, but expects it to fall to $59/barrel in Q4 2025 and remain at $51.43/barrel in 2026. As of the week of August 29, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, gasoline inventories decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories increased. OPEC's June production decreased by 46,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, and its July production increased by 262,000 barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of August 29 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.423 million barrels per day [3] Demand - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.282 million barrels per day, up 3.89% year - on - year. Gasoline and diesel weekly demand decreased, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to decrease by 4.45% month - on - month [4]