银河期货尿素日报-20250910

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 10, 2025 [2] - Research Area: Energy and Chemicals [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and declined, closing at 1669 (-17/-1.01%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices weakened and declined, with general trading. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1630 - 1640 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1490 - 1550 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On September 10, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.51 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 0.36 tons compared to the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: The operating rate on this day was 79.12%, a decrease of 2.30% compared to 81.42% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: Market sentiment was average, with urea spot factory quotes in mainstream areas declining and trading being mediocre [5] - Regional Market Analysis: In Shandong, the mainstream factory quotes led the decline, and the factory quotes were expected to be weakly stable; in Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the factory quotes were expected to follow the decline; in the surrounding areas of the delivery zone, the factory prices were expected to decline [5] - Supply and Demand: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily output dropped below 190,000 tons. India tendered for 200,000 tons again. The domestic demand was in a "vacuum period", and the overall demand showed a downward trend. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 37,700 tons to around 1.1327 million tons [5] - Market Outlook: In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited. The Indian tender had a certain support for the domestic spot market sentiment, but the domestic demand was weak, and the urea market was expected to continue its weak operation [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term bearish, do not chase the short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9]