ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-09-10 11:22Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector [2] Core Insights - The P/CE-ROCE valuation system has been updated based on the 1H25 financial results of listed insurance companies, highlighting the resilience of group insurance companies amid fluctuating net asset values and differing liability assessment curves [5][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new valuation framework, which integrates comprehensive equity (CE) and comprehensive equity return rate (ROCE) to better reflect the true value of insurance companies under new accounting standards [5][42] Summary by Sections 1. P/CE-ROCE Valuation System Overview - The P/CE-ROCE valuation system was introduced to address the limitations of the previous P/EV-ROEV framework, focusing on comprehensive equity (CE) as a more accurate measure of insurance company value [5][11] - The system calculates CE as the sum of net assets (NA) and net contract service margin (CSM), providing a clearer picture of profitability and asset-liability matching [5][11] 2. Industry Performance Analysis - In 1H25, the comprehensive equity (CE) growth varied among listed insurance companies, with China Life Insurance leading at 7.0% growth, while Sunshine Insurance and Xinhua Insurance experienced declines of -4.2% and -6.7%, respectively [5][31] - The overall industry saw a 1.4% increase in CE, driven primarily by differences in net asset growth rates among companies [5][31] 3. ROCE Calculation Results - The non-annualized ROCE for listed insurance companies in 1H25 showed significant variation, with China Life Insurance achieving the highest ROCE at 9.2%, while Sunshine Insurance and Xinhua Insurance reported negative ROCE values [5][39] - The report notes a 13.0% year-on-year decline in overall comprehensive income (CI) for the sector, influenced by market interest rate changes and negative contributions from other comprehensive income (OCI) [5][37] 4. Valuation System Fit - The P/CE-ROCE system demonstrated a better fit for H-share listed insurance companies compared to A-share companies, indicating a positive correlation between ROCE and P/CE valuations [5][40] - The report concludes that the new CE valuation system provides a more prudent and comprehensive assessment of insurance companies' value, avoiding the over-reliance on long-term economic assumptions [5][42]