聚乙烯风险管理日报-20250910

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the self - driving force of PE is still weak. It is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the slow recovery of downstream demand limits the upward push on PE. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern, waiting for a significant demand recovery signal on the spot side to drive PE up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.8% [2]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short plastic futures (L2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 7300 - 7350 yuan/ton and sell call options (L2601C7400) with a 50% hedging ratio at 70 - 100 [2]. - For procurement management with low standing inventory, it is recommended to buy plastic futures (L2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton and sell put options (L2601P7100) with a 75% hedging ratio at 70 - 100 [2]. Core Contradiction - Although PE supply is expected to decrease in September due to high - volume device maintenance and demand is expected to increase as downstream moves from the off - season to the peak season, the slow recovery of demand and weak base - strengthening trend limit the upward push on PE [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - Liduo Factors: Demand is expected to improve month - on - month; the commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE new device is expected to be postponed; there are still many device overhauls in September, leading to a de - stocking pattern in the balance sheet [4]. - Likong Factors: The current demand recovery speed is slow; the current LLDPE inventory is at a high level [5]. Daily Data Table - Futures Prices and Spreads: Plastic main base - spread was - 16 yuan/ton on September 10, 2025, with a daily change of 3 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 14 yuan/ton. L01, L05, and L09 contracts had different price changes [6]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: Prices in North China, East China, and South China showed different trends, and regional spreads also changed [8]. - Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads: Spreads between different HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, had different changes [8]. - Upstream Prices and Processing Profits: Brent crude oil price, US ethane price, coal price, and methanol price had different trends, and processing profits of different PE production methods also changed [8].