Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. It points out that due to the weakness of the US labor market and potential tariff impacts, the "stagflation-like" risk remains, and precious metals are expected to maintain a strong performance at high levels. For other metals, factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomics, and geopolitical events are considered to determine their market trends and provide corresponding trading strategies [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Review: London gold initially broke through the 3670 mark but then dropped, closing down 0.32% at $3624.17 per ounce; London silver closed down 1.13% at $40.86 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract reached a historical high and closed up 0.11% at 832.6 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed up 1.08% at 9760 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index closed up 0.33% at 97.77, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.0799%, and the RMB against the US dollar closed up 0.06% at 7.125 [3]. - Important Information: The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case; the US economy may have added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending in March than previously estimated; the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 93%, and Israel launched an attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The weakness of the US labor market and geopolitical events led to the volatile trend of gold. Despite short - term fluctuations, precious metals are expected to remain strong at high levels due to the "stagflation - like" risk [4]. - Trading Strategy: Hold existing long positions in gold against the 5 - day moving average; take profit on existing long positions in silver at high prices. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [5]. Copper - Market Review: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed down 0.14% at 79,600 yuan per ton, and the LME copper closed up 0.1% at $9916.5 per ton. The LME inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,200 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1917 tons to 307,600 tons [6]. - Important Information: The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000; Anglo American agreed to merge with Teck Resources; a mining accident in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia led to the suspension of operations [6][7]. - Logic Analysis: The Fed's 9 - month interest rate cut is confirmed, but the market's concern about recession has increased. The supply of refined copper in September is expected to decline, and the inventory in non - US regions is accumulating slowly. The consumption shows a weakening trend, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term correction, pay attention to the support level of 78,500 yuan per ton and consider buying after the price stabilizes. Conduct cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage of buying 10 and selling 12. Wait and see for options [8]. Zinc - Market Review: The LME zinc closed down 0.21% at $2867 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 closed down 0.32% at 22,130 yuan per ton. The domestic spot market trading was average [10]. - Important Information: The CZSPT issued the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025; the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased; Huayu Mining completed a certain amount of mining and metal production in the first half of 2025 [11]. - Logic Analysis: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weaker than expected, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [11]. - Trading Strategy: Existing short positions can continue to be held, beware of the impact of funds on zinc prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [12]. Lead - Market Review: The LME lead closed down 0.6% at $1978 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 closed down 0.56% at 16,820 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [14]. - Important Information: The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased; a lead - acid battery manufacturer in the southwest plans to start production in October; a large recycled lead smelter in the east is about to resume production [14][15]. - Logic Analysis: The reduction and suspension of production of domestic recycled lead smelters have increased, and the consumption is weak. The short - term supply and demand may maintain a double - weak pattern, and the Shanghai lead price will continue to fluctuate [16]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term Shanghai lead price may move sideways. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][18]. Nickel - Market Review: The LME nickel price dropped to $15,105 per ton, and the inventory increased to 218,070 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2510 dropped to 120,400 yuan per ton [19]. - Important Information: Auric Mining completed a major acquisition of nickel mining rights [20]. - Logic Analysis: The poor US employment data and the continuous increase in LME inventory indicate an oversupply of refined nickel in China. The supply growth rate in September is higher, and the upward space of nickel price is limited [21]. - Trading Strategy: The nickel price is expected to be weak and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main SS2510 contract dropped to 12,835 yuan per ton, and the spot market prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [23]. - Important Information: The US stainless steel price remained stable in August due to tariffs, and potential trade quota agreements may bring new variables [23][24]. - Logic Analysis: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September is rising, but the market is more worried about recession. The domestic consumption growth is limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [24]. - Trading Strategy: The stainless steel price will maintain a wide - range shock. Wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Industrial Silicon - Market Review: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8410 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The spot price was stable [26]. - Important Information: A 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project in Karamay is under investment promotion [26]. - Logic Analysis: The supply and demand of industrial silicon remain in a tight - balance state. The price increase space is greater than the decrease space. The futures may continue to correct, and buying can be considered near the August low [26]. - Trading Strategy: There may be a short - term correction, buy after a full correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options and participate in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts [27][28]. Polysilicon - Market Review: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 53,520 yuan per ton, down 0.73%. The spot prices of some types of polysilicon decreased [30]. - Important Information: The installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the US in the first half of 2025 accounted for 75% of the new power installed capacity [30]. - Logic Analysis: The demand for polysilicon in September is about 116,000 tons, and the production is expected to be around 130,000 tons. The long - term price trend is upward, but the short - term may correct [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: Participate in the correction band with a light position and short - term, and participate in long positions after the correction stabilizes. Conduct reverse arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts and buy a wide - straddle option for profit - taking [31]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main 2511 contract dropped to 72,900 yuan per ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate remained unchanged [34]. - Important Information: The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers plans to establish a new energy vehicle battery branch; CATL launched a new battery technology; the export of new energy passenger vehicles in August increased year - on - year [35]. - Logic Analysis: The market interprets that CATL may resume production early, and the long - term trend will return to the logic of oversupply [36]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Tin - Market Review: The Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 269,040 yuan per ton, down 0.28%. The spot market trading was okay, but the market was skeptical about short - term consumption improvement [38]. - Important Information: The US non - farm employment was revised down [38]. - Logic Analysis: The poor US non - farm data led to a weak trend of tin. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to recover late. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and other factors [38]. - Trading Strategy: The tin price may be weak and volatile. Wait and see for options [39].
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250910
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-10 11:11