苹果产业风险管理日报-20250910

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, and the focus is on the delivery of new apples. New late Fuji apples may have a high opening price, but it's uncertain if the price will continue to rise. There may be a polarization of high - quality apples having high prices and poor - quality apples having low prices [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather causing potential yield reduction. Bearish factors are that the overall yield reduction is less than expected, the impact of off - season fruits, and weak consumption [5][6][8]. Summary by Directory Apple Price Interval Prediction - The predicted monthly price interval for apples is 7800 - 8400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.6% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy - Inventory Management: For those worried about a new apple harvest and low purchase prices, they can short apple futures (AP2510) with a 50% hedging ratio at 8300 - 8400 and sell call options (AP2511C8400) with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 40 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - Procurement Management: For those worried about rising apple prices due to old - crop inventory decline and new - crop yield reduction, they can buy apple futures (AP2510) with a 50% hedging ratio at 8000 - 8100 and sell put options (AP2511P7900) with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 60 to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [3]. Core Contradiction - The market is in the fruit expansion period, and the focus is on new - apple delivery. New late Fuji apples may have a high opening price, and there may be a price polarization [4]. Bullish Factors - Low inventory in production areas and fast de - stocking in the early stage support the market. Unstable weather in production areas may lead to a large yield reduction in the northwest [5]. Bearish Factors - The overall yield reduction is less than expected, and there is even an expected increase in production. The peak season of off - season fruits impacts the apple market, and consumption is weak. The recent slowdown in inventory decline and small fruit size may lead to low prices [6][8]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices of different contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) have different daily and weekly changes. Spot prices of different apple varieties (Qixia 80, Luochuan 70, etc.) also have corresponding changes. The profit on the futures market decreased by 17.08% daily and 17.56% weekly, and the theoretical delivery price is 8600 [6]. Apple Inventory - As of September 5, 2025 (Steel Union data), the national cold - storage inventory was 27.35 (weekly change: - 6.62), and the storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc. also decreased. As of September 4, 2025 (Zhuochuang data), the national cold - storage inventory was 30.62 (weekly change: - 4.73), and the storage capacity ratios in relevant regions also decreased. The arrival volume of apples at some wholesale markets in Guangdong increased [10].