欧佩克+继续增产！油价路在何方？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ will continue to increase production, with the first - stage production increase plan likely to end around autumn this year. Global crude oil supply surplus signs will gradually appear, bringing long - term bearish pressure on oil prices. However, oil prices may spike in the short - term due to geopolitical factors. Oil prices may remain under pressure in the second half of the year and perform weaker than in the first half [5][11]. Content Summaries Based on Related Catalogs OPEC+ Production Increase Plan - From October 2025, OPEC+ will implement a daily production adjustment of 137,000 barrels, far lower than the 555,000 barrels per day in August and September. The 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions, and will be carried out gradually [1]. - This year, OPEC+ has implemented multiple production increase plans. From April to September, the cumulative increase is 2.467 million barrels per day, covering the 2.2 million barrels per day reduction in 2024. The production increase in October will start the process of restoring the 1.66 million barrels per day reduction quota, originally planned to last until the end of 2026 [5]. Production Increase Execution - As of July, the actual production increase of OPEC+ was 916,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 66.8% of the latest production increase plan from April to July. The actual production increase from April to July was lower than the planned amount [7]. Oil Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Since late January, Brent crude oil has shown a volatile downward trend. Factors include OPEC+ maintaining production cuts, geopolitical tensions, US tariff policies, and OPEC+ production increase announcements [8]. - In August, due to the easing of geopolitical situations and continuous OPEC+ production increases, international crude oil prices oscillated at a low level [9]. Other Institutions' Views on Future Oil Prices - Deutsche Bank expects WTI crude oil price to stay at $62 per barrel, $3 lower than Brent [12]. - HSBC maintains its forecast of $65 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025, but the downside risk from increased market supply surplus is rising [12]. - SOCAR believes the biggest uncertainty in the current crude oil market comes from geopolitical risks [12]. - Capital Economics expects a large surplus in the oil market in Q4 this year and Brent crude to fall to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025 [12]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the oil supply surplus in 2026 will increase from 1.7 million barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, and the average prices of Brent and WTI crude will reach $56 and $52 per barrel respectively [14]. - S&P expects Brent crude to drop to about $55 per barrel by the end of the year [15].