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深圳新星(603978):公司事件点评报告:多重周期拐点叠加,盈利进入上行通道

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue recovery, with a 29% year-over-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 1.5 billion yuan, and a notable reduction in net loss to 22 million yuan [4][5] - The recovery in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices is expected to lead to a turning point in profitability, with prices rising approximately 15% since July 21, 2025 [5] - The company is actively developing new business lines, indicating a clear growth path for the future [5] - The aluminum foil segment is entering a performance release phase, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons expected to contribute positively to profitability [6] - The company is nearing the completion of its boron trifluoride production lines, with expected production starting in October 2025, which is anticipated to have strong demand due to its applications in nuclear technology [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, a 29% increase year-over-year, while the net loss was reduced to 22 million yuan [4][5] - For Q2 2025, revenue was 760 million yuan, a 15% increase year-over-year, with a net loss of 25 million yuan primarily due to the lithium hexafluorophosphate business [5] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 51 million yuan, 224 million yuan, and 392 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 77, 18, and 10 times [8][9] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 3.059 billion yuan, 3.698 billion yuan, and 4.452 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19.4%, 20.9%, and 20.4% respectively [11] Business Development - The company completed a 100,000-ton battery aluminum foil project by the end of 2024, which is expected to enhance profitability [6] - The boron trifluoride production lines are set to commence operations in October 2025, with high barriers to entry and promising profit potential due to the complexity of production [7]