8月物价数据解读：CPI低位承压 PPI低点已过

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the CPI remained flat month-on-month (previous value 0.4%) and decreased year-on-year to -0.4%, compared to a five-year average of 0.3% for the same period[2] - Food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month (previous value -0.2%) but decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth[4] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI turned flat month-on-month (previous value -0.2%), ending an eight-month downward trend, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.9% (previous value -3.6%) for the first time since March[20] - Production demand improvements supported price increases in some energy and raw material sectors, with the PMI production index rising to 50.8% (previous value 50.5%) in August[21] - The prices of coal processing rose by 9.7% month-on-month, while black metal smelting prices increased by 1.9%[21] Group 3: Food Price Trends - Pork prices decreased by 0.5% month-on-month (previous value 0.9%), significantly lower than the five-year average increase of 4.1%[7] - Egg prices rose by 1.5% month-on-month (previous value -0.3%), below the seasonal average increase of 5.9% over the past five years[7] - Fresh vegetable prices increased by 8.5% month-on-month (previous value 1.3%), while fresh fruit prices decreased by 2.8%[7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Outlook - Consumer confidence remains weak, with limited recovery potential for core CPI, as internal consumption dynamics are sluggish[26] - The agricultural sector is expected to stabilize pork prices, but supply pressures remain significant due to ongoing production adjustments[26] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence[33]