Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Soybean/Meal: The decline of US soybeans reflects the impact of demand, but the downside space is limited. Brazilian soybeans also have limited deep - decline space. In China, there is still supply pressure and inventory pressure on soybean meal [2][4][6]. - Sugar: Internationally, the global sugar market is expected to enter a stockpiling stage, and prices are expected to rebound in the short - term after falling to a low level. In the domestic market, although domestic sugar inventory is low, a large amount of imported sugar may put some pressure on prices [11]. - Oils and Fats: Overnight, US soybean oil fell, and the domestic oil market followed the weakness. Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase production and stockpile in August, while Indonesian inventory is low. US soybeans have a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of stockpiling, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory [19]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The US corn futures are falling, but there is still room for rebound. In China, the supply of corn is still relatively short, and the spot price of corn may continue to fall [23][28]. - Pigs: The overall supply pressure of pigs has decreased, but due to the relatively high inventory and high slaughter weight, there is still some pressure on prices [34]. - Peanuts: The supply of peanuts is still small, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [38]. - Eggs: The supply - side pressure has been alleviated, but the over - supply pattern has not changed. The demand is expected to increase slightly before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day [46]. - Apples: The 10 - month contract of apples may fall in the short - term, but the decline space is limited. The market may focus on the excellent fruit rate [55]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: As new cotton enters the acquisition stage, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is expected to have a limited impact on the market [59]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - Market Conditions: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1048.5 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.1% to 292 dollars/short ton [2]. - Related Information: The estimated US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.271 billion bushels, and the estimated yield is 53.3 bushels/acre. As of September 7, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 2.44 million tons, and soybean meal imports were 3.63 million tons. In Argentina, there may be a new political crisis. As of September 5, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3039 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.76% [2][3]. - Trading Strategy: Long positions can be arranged at low prices for distant - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal. Expand the MRM05 spread. Buy call options [7]. Sugar - Market Conditions: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar both rose [8]. - Related Information: In the first week of September, Brazil exported 769,000 tons of sugar and molasses. The 2025/26 German beet refined sugar production is expected to decrease by 4.9% to 4.4 million tons. Domestic processing sugar prices are stable with a slight decline [9][10]. - Trading Strategy: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [12][13][15]. Oils and Fats - Market Conditions: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil both fell [15]. - Related Information: As of August 31, 209,033 oil palm small farmers in Malaysia obtained MSPO certification. The estimated US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.271 billion bushels, and the estimated ending inventory is 288 million bushels. Ukraine's rapeseed exports may be suspended for at least a week. Canada's rapeseed inventory decreased, while exports increased [16][17]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for the callback and then try to go long in batches. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market Conditions: CBOT corn futures fell [23]. - Related Information: The main reason for the decline is the start of the US corn harvest and traders' position - closing before the USDA monthly report. The US corn main - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the next 6 - 10 days. As of September 7, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 68%, and the harvest rate was 4%. The North Port acquisition price is stable, while the North China spot price is falling [24][27]. - Trading Strategy: Try to go long on the 12 - month US corn contract on dips. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for the 01 corn contract. Expand the spread between 11 - month corn and starch lightly [29][30]. Pigs - Market Conditions: Pig prices are generally stable to declining, and the prices of piglets and sows are falling [33][34]. - Related Information: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both decreased, and the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.2% [34]. - Trading Strategy: Short on the near - month contracts on rallies. Reverse - arbitrage the LH15 contract. Buy call options for distant - month contracts [35]. Peanuts - Market Conditions: The average price of national peanut kernels is stable with a slight increase, the operating rate of oil mills is low, and the prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable [36][37]. - Related Information: As of September 4, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased [37]. - Trading Strategy: The 11 - month and 01 - month peanut contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Try to go long on the 05 - month peanut contract lightly. Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [39][41]. Eggs - Market Conditions: The average price of eggs in the main production areas and main sales areas rose. The national mainstream egg prices are stable with some increases [43][44]. - Related Information: In August, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 3% in the week of August 28. The production and circulation inventories decreased [45][46]. - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report. Apples - Market Conditions: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the export volume increased. The spot price is stable [49][50]. - Related Information: The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia decreased by 0.1 yuan/jin compared with last week [54]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [55]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market Conditions: ICE US cotton rose [56]. - Related Information: In August, China's textile and clothing exports decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year. As of September 8, the ICE deliverable No. 2 cotton contract inventory remained unchanged. As of September 6, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 86.9% [57][58]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly weakly. Go short on rallies. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [59].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20250910
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-10 11:23