中泰期货晨会纪要-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock Index Futures: Short - term trading may be mainly in a range - bound pattern, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. It is advisable to focus on swing trading and avoid chasing highs or selling lows [10]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Consider buying bonds on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing, but pay attention to the trading rhythm [11]. - Steel and Iron Ore: Steel is expected to maintain a range - bound market, and it is recommended to wait and see. Hold a small short position in iron ore [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to decline from high levels in the short term. Pay attention to the production progress in the origin and the production status of steel mills and coking enterprises [15]. - Ferroalloys: Look for opportunities to go long on the 10 - contract of ferrosilicon. Adopt a medium - to long - term strategy of shorting manganese silicon on rebounds without chasing the short [15]. - Soda Ash and Glass: For soda ash, maintain a bearish trend strategy of selling on rallies, and exit flexibly if a short - term positive feedback atmosphere emerges. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [16]. - Aluminum and Alumina: For aluminum, with strong expectations of Fed rate cuts and improving consumption in the peak season, buy on dips cautiously. For alumina, with high production and supply and rising inventory pressure, sell on rallies [19]. - Lithium Carbonate: It will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. The current supply - demand situation is strong on both sides, but the expected resumption of production on the supply side may have a negative impact on sentiment [20]. - Industrial Silicon: It may still have room for adjustment in the short term due to the impact of polysilicon, but the downward adjustment space is limited. Consider buying a small amount of far - month contracts at the lower end of the range [21]. - Polysilicon: Policy progress dominates the price fluctuation. If there is no substantial policy implementation in the short term, the upside will be gradually pressured after the futures price rises above the spot price. Be cautious in operation [22]. - Cotton: In the short term, cotton prices may continue to be under pressure, and a bearish strategy may be appropriate in the long term. Consider selling on rallies [24]. - Sugar: The fundamental situation of sugar prices is bearish, but after a continuous decline, there is a technical rebound demand. Pay close attention to the change in the domestic - foreign sugar price spread and consider covering short positions on rallies near the 5 - week moving average if necessary [26]. - Eggs: The probability of a short - term market reversal is not high. However, in the peak season, the spot price is short - term strong. There is a logic of production capacity reduction in the futures market, and the futures price may have a phased rebound. Consider short - term long positions on dips with caution [31]. - Apples: Consider buying on dips with a small position [33]. - Corn: Short the 01 - contract on rallies [34]. - Red Dates: Sell on rallies [35]. - Hogs: For near - month contracts, adopt a bearish strategy on rallies and control the trading rhythm. For the medium - to long - term, focus on low - buying opportunities for the 01 - contract. Also, pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread and 1 - 3 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [35]. - Crude Oil: It is likely to enter a supply - exceeding - demand pattern. Consider shorting on rallies [35]. - Fuel Oil: The price will follow the movement of crude oil prices. The short - term trading range of oil prices is estimated to be between 65 and 70 dollars [35]. - Plastics: Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and a weak supply - demand pattern. The rebound space is limited, and a bearish strategy can be adopted after the rebound [37]. - Rubber: Except for the impact of weather and rainfall, there are no obvious fundamental contradictions. Consider reducing long positions or holding a small position or waiting and seeing [38]. - Methanol: The supply - demand situation is weak with continuous inventory accumulation at ports. However, there may be some supply disturbances. It is advisable to switch to a range - bound trading strategy and reduce short positions for now [39]. - Caustic Soda: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy [40]. - Asphalt: It will follow the movement of oil prices, and the short - term trading range is estimated to be between 3380 and 3450 [41]. - Polyester Industry Chain: The market may have a limited further downward space in the short term and has a demand for oversold correction. Consider buying on dips [43]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): It has a large supply and limited upward space. Maintain a long - term bearish view [44]. - Pulp: Observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and the situation of spot transactions in the short term [45]. - Logs: The fundamental situation is range - bound. If the price - holding strategy is well - implemented and downstream orders in the peak season are good, consider buying on dips with a small position while controlling risks [46]. - Urea: Follow the movement of spot prices in futures trading. The 01 - contract of urea futures is oscillating weakly [46]. - Synthetic Rubber: Wait and see in the short term or look for low - buying opportunities on the futures price [47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the high - quality implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the development achievements of the industrial and telecommunications industries in the past five years and responded to hot topics [7]. - The US government announced preliminary benchmark revision data, showing a downward revision of 911,000 non - farm payrolls in the year ending March, which may lay the foundation for a series of Fed rate cuts starting next week [7]. - Apple held its 2025 autumn new product launch, releasing multiple new products including the iPhone 17 series [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation held a press conference, stating that it will closely monitor the competition in the food delivery industry, urge platforms to control subsidies, and improve the protection of riders' rights [8]. - Ningde Times' subsidiary is promoting the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine, and the progress is faster than expected [8]. - The rumor of Alibaba's restart of Koubei.com is false, and the press conference is related to Gaode and group - buying business [8]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading and intraday closing - out handling fees for the PS2511 contract of polysilicon futures and limited the daily opening volume for non - futures company members or clients on the SI2511 contract of industrial silicon futures and the PS2511 contract of polysilicon futures [9]. Stock Index Futures Tuesday's A - share market was weakly consolidating, with over 4000 stocks falling. The short - term may be range - bound, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. It is advisable to focus on swing trading and avoid chasing highs or selling lows [10]. Treasury Bond Futures Consider buying bonds on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing, but pay attention to the trading rhythm. The recent weakening of foreign trade data may contribute to future monetary easing [11]. Steel and Iron Ore From a policy perspective, the impact on steel supply and market prices is limited. In terms of pricing rhythm, there may be a situation of "no peak season in the peak season". The demand for building materials is weak, and the supply is expected to remain strong. Steel is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to hold a small short position in iron ore [12][13]. Coking Coal and Coke The prices may continue to decline from high levels in the short term. The supply may gradually recover, but the mid - term resumption of coking coal production is hindered. The demand is supported by high - level iron - making in steel mills, but there is a possibility of a decline [15]. Ferroalloys There is an opportunity to go long on the 10 - contract of ferrosilicon. Manganese silicon should be shorted on rebounds in the medium - to long - term, but avoid chasing short positions. The spread between ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may widen [15]. Soda Ash and Glass For soda ash, sell on rallies and exit flexibly if the positive feedback atmosphere emerges. For glass, wait and see. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and the demand for photovoltaic glass may increase. The price of glass has risen, and the future supply may slightly increase [16][17]. Aluminum and Alumina For aluminum, with strong expectations of Fed rate cuts and improving consumption in the peak season, buy on dips cautiously. For alumina, with high production and supply and rising inventory pressure, sell on rallies [19]. Lithium Carbonate It will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. The current supply - demand situation is strong on both sides, but the expected resumption of production on the supply side may have a negative impact on sentiment [20]. Industrial Silicon It may still have room for adjustment in the short term due to the impact of polysilicon, but the downward adjustment space is limited. Consider buying a small amount of far - month contracts at the lower end of the range [21]. Polysilicon Policy progress dominates the price fluctuation. If there is no substantial policy implementation in the short term, the upside will be gradually pressured after the futures price rises above the spot price. Be cautious in operation [22]. Cotton In the short term, cotton prices may continue to be under pressure, and a bearish strategy may be appropriate in the long term. Consider selling on rallies. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [24]. Sugar The fundamental situation of sugar prices is bearish, but after a continuous decline, there is a technical rebound demand. Pay close attention to the change in the domestic - foreign sugar price spread and consider covering short positions on rallies near the 5 - week moving average if necessary [26]. Eggs The probability of a short - term market reversal is not high. However, in the peak season, the spot price is short - term strong. There is a logic of production capacity reduction in the futures market, and the futures price may have a phased rebound. Consider short - term long positions on dips with caution [31]. Apples Consider buying on dips with a small position. The price of early - maturing apples may affect the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples [33]. Corn Short the 01 - contract on rallies. The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend, and the trading focus will shift to new crops in September [34]. Red Dates Sell on rallies. The market trading volume is small, and the price is oscillating weakly [35]. Hogs For near - month contracts, adopt a bearish strategy on rallies and control the trading rhythm. For the medium - to long - term, focus on low - buying opportunities for the 01 - contract. Also, pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread and 1 - 3 positive spread arbitrage opportunities. The short - term market is in a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern [35]. Crude Oil It is likely to enter a supply - exceeding - demand pattern. Consider shorting on rallies. Pay attention to the progress of US - Russia negotiations and whether OPEC+ will increase the production quota [35]. Fuel Oil The price will follow the movement of crude oil prices. The short - term trading range of oil prices is estimated to be between 65 and 70 dollars. The low - sulfur fuel oil has weak fundamentals, and the high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by refinery raw material demand [35][36]. Plastics Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and a weak supply - demand pattern. The rebound space is limited, and a bearish strategy can be adopted after the rebound [37]. Rubber Except for the impact of weather and rainfall, there are no obvious fundamental contradictions. Consider reducing long positions or holding a small position or waiting and seeing [38]. Methanol The supply - demand situation is weak with continuous inventory accumulation at ports. However, there may be some supply disturbances. It is advisable to switch to a range - bound trading strategy and reduce short positions for now [39]. Caustic Soda Adopt a range - bound trading strategy. The high supply pressure and the price trend of alumina have an impact on the price of caustic soda [40]. Asphalt It will follow the movement of oil prices, and the short - term trading range is estimated to be between 3380 and 3450. It has entered the seasonal demand peak season, and the inventory is at a critical stage [41][42]. Polyester Industry Chain The market may have a limited further downward space in the short term and has a demand for oversold correction. Consider buying on dips. The cost support is strengthening, and the supply - demand situation of each product in the polyester chain varies [43]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) It has a large supply and limited upward space. Maintain a long - term bearish view. The price may follow the movement of crude oil prices [44]. Pulp Observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and the situation of spot transactions in the short term. The port inventory is still high, and the spot trading is weak [45]. Logs The fundamental situation is range - bound. If the price - holding strategy is well - implemented and downstream orders in the peak season are good, consider buying on dips with a small position while controlling risks [46]. Urea Follow the movement of spot prices in futures trading. The 01 - contract of urea futures is oscillating weakly. The market is waiting for the result of the rumored Indian urea procurement tender [46]. Synthetic Rubber Wait and see in the short term or look for low - buying opportunities on the futures price. The factory prices of butadiene and synthetic rubber have been lowered, and the downstream procurement has increased [47].