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新时达(002527):运动控制主业拐点向上,海尔入主加速具身智能落地

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic robotics firm, with an upward turning point in its motion control business. The acquisition by Haier is expected to accelerate the implementation of embodied intelligence and humanoid robots beyond expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Exceeding Expectations - The market perceives the company's growth and profitability as weak. However, the company is a leader in control technology with strong product iteration capabilities. It ranks second globally in elevator controllers and fourth in domestic SCARA industrial robot shipments. The company has pioneered domestic replacements in automation products and achieved integration in robot drive control [2] - Haier's acquisition is expected to benefit the company as it continues to push for embodied intelligence. Haier has established a robotics division, initiated a 10 billion yuan investment fund for embodied intelligence, formed an innovation alliance, and launched household robots [2][31] - The company plans to launch an embodied intelligent welding solution in September 2025 and an intelligent controller by the end of 2025, with a focus on humanoid robots [3][37] 2. Management and Profitability Improvement - Haier's shareholding and voting rights in the company are expected to increase significantly, potentially raising its stake from 10% to 26.83% and voting rights from 29.24% to 42.47% after a planned capital increase [4][24] - Key management positions are held by members from Haier, which is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability through Haier's effective management model [5][29] 3. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.13 billion yuan, 0.84 billion yuan, and 1.90 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround and growth rates of 567% and 128% respectively. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for this period is estimated at approximately 290% [11] - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 949, 142, and 62 for the years 2025 to 2027 [11] 4. Revenue and Profit Structure - The company has three main business segments: elevator control, robot control, and general control and drive. In 2024, the revenue from these segments is expected to be 6.6 billion yuan, 15.9 billion yuan, and 8.0 billion yuan respectively [14] - The gross margin for the elevator control segment is relatively high, with improvements noted in the margins for general control and robot segments [22]