固定收益点评：物价趋势尚不明确

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current price data remains weak. The significant increase in gold prices is the main factor supporting the upward trend of core CPI year - on - year growth, while most other sub - items perform weaker than the seasonal average. The narrowing of the PPI decline in August is mainly due to the low base effect. The effectiveness of the national unified market construction policy is mainly concentrated in upstream industries such as coal, steel, and photovoltaic. The ineffective recovery of domestic demand may hinder the PPI's year - on - year recovery. The sustainability of the current industrial price increase and its price transmission effect on downstream industries depend on the improvement of social terminal demand [4][35]. - The bond market may gradually recover in a volatile manner. The decreasing correlation between stocks and bonds and the weakening impact of commodities on the bond market mean that the adjustment pressure on bonds is gradually alleviating. Given the continuous asset shortage, loose funds, and the downward trend of the entity's return rate, the downward trend of broad - spectrum interest rates such as loan interest rates remains unchanged. The over - increase in interest rates at the beginning of the year has been gradually digested. Therefore, there is limited room for further interest rate adjustment, and the bond market will gradually return to the fundamentals and the asset shortage situation. However, this return may not be smooth but rather a gradual recovery in a volatile manner. It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped operation strategy, combining short - term credit/certificates of deposit with long - term interest rates, and pay attention to the opportunities for high - selling and low - buying in long - term interest rate positions. The long - term bond interest rate may decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, and interest rates are still expected to reach new lows this year [5][36]. 3. Summary by Related Content CPI Analysis - Overall CPI: In August, the year - on - year decline of CPI widened, dropping from flat to - 0.4%, indicating weak consumer - end prices. The year - on - year decline of core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, and the month - on - month figure remained flat. Gold prices, oil prices, and summer consumption are the main factors driving the CPI's year - on - year performance. After excluding the "other goods and services" sub - item, the overall price level remains weak [1][8]. - Other Goods and Services Sub - item: In August, this sub - item continued to grow at a high level, with a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, 0.6 percentage points higher than in July. The high - speed growth may be supported by the rising gold prices. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic gold futures prices was 37.1%, slightly down 0.7 percentage points from July [2][16]. - Food CPI: In August, the year - on - year decline of food CPI widened, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%, 2.7 percentage points more than the previous month, mainly due to the decline in vegetable, egg, and fruit prices. The month - on - month increase was 0.5%, lower than the seasonal level by about 1.1 percentage points. The low pork prices are the main reason for the widening of the CPI's year - on - year decline [21]. - Non - food CPI: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of non - food CPI increased to 0.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the month - on - month figure decreased by 0.1%. The increase in the year - on - year growth rate of summer service prices may be the main reason [23]. PPI Analysis - Overall PPI: In August, the year - on - year decline of PPI was 2.9%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, the first narrowing since March this year, mainly due to the low base effect of the previous year and the narrowing decline of coal processing and ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries. The month - on - month figure remained flat compared to the previous month. The prices of domestic industrial products showed a mixed trend in August [3][29]. - Sub - industries of PPI: Some raw material industries' prices changed from decline to increase, such as coal processing, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling, and glass manufacturing. However, the prices of the petroleum and some non - ferrous metal industries declined month - on - month due to input factors [3][29]. - PPI of Means of Livelihood: In August, the year - on - year decline of the PPI of means of livelihood was 1.7%, 0.1 percentage points wider than the previous month. Among them, the prices of clothing remained flat, the growth rate of general daily necessities slowed down, the decline of durable consumer goods widened, and the decline of food prices narrowed [30].